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Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and how it compares with the price.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the Pinnacle price where the match is priced.

Smart views
171 matches · best line per match
  • PanathinaikosAEK Athens
    Sun 18:30 · Super League
    2.17
    -2%
    Panathinaikos 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 45%
    L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
  • ElcheValencia
    Sun 18:30 · La Liga
    2.39
    +4%
    Elche 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.2 · Model 43%
    L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1537%11/30
  • BurgosCastellón
    Sun 18:30 · La Liga 2
    3.76
    +7%
    Burgos 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 28%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1540%12/30
  • Lommel SKGent
    Sun 18:30 · Pro League
    3.94
    +1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 26%
    L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
  • Academico ViseuRio Ave
    Sun 19:00 · Liga Portugal
    1.87
    -2%
    Academico Viseu 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.1 · Model 52%
    L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1552%14/27
  • Ittihad TangerCR Khemis Zemamra
    Sun 19:00 · Botola Pro
    –
    –
    Ittihad Tanger 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 50%
    L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
  • Boca JuniorsRiver Plate
    Sun 19:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    3.84
    -1%
    River Plate 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 26%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1527%8/30
  • ASEC MimosasSan-Pedro
    Sun 19:00 · Ligue 1
    –
    –
    ASEC Mimosas 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 41%
    L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
  • CODM MeknèsFAR Rabat
    Sun 19:00 · Botola Pro
    –
    –
    CODM Meknès 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 42%
    L540%4/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
  • MarítimoSanta Clara
    Sun 19:00 · Liga Portugal
    3.70
    +3%
    Marítimo 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.5 · Model 28%
    L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1524%6/25
  • Draw 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.6 · Model 21%
    L50%0/10L1011%2/18L159%2/23
  • KAS EupenExcelsior Virtonlimited data
    Sun 19:15 · Challenger Pro League
    5.20
    +10%
    Excelsior Virton 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.3 · Model 21%
    L520%2/10L1035%6/17L1532%7/22
  • VålerengaTromsø
    Sun 19:15 · Eliteserien
    2.44
    +1%
    Vålerenga 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.6 · Model 42%
    L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
  • Sporting CharleroiLa Louvière
    Sun 19:15 · Pro League
    5.74
    +6%
    La Louvière 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.1 · Model 18%
    L540%4/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
  • PalermoVicenza
    Sun 19:30 · Serie B
    4.29
    -2%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 23%
    L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1524%6/25
  • Dinamo BucureştiUTA Arad
    Sun 19:30 · Superliga
    6.39
    +10%
    UTA Arad 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.1 · Model 17%
    L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
  • PalmeirasVasco da Gama
    Sun 20:00 · Copa do Brasil
    3.51
    -3%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 28%
    L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
  • LondrinaAmérica Mineiro
    Sun 20:00 · Serie B
    3.55
    -2%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 28%
    L510%1/10L105%1/20L1510%3/30
  • DanubioNacional
    Sun 20:30 · Primera Division
    4.26
    +9%
    Danubio 1X2
    xG 1.2–1.2 · Model 26%
    L530%3/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
  • Olympique MarseilleToulouse
    Sun 20:45 · Ligue 1
    3.78
    +2%
    Toulouse 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 27%
    L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1540%12/30
  • JuventusNapoli
    Sun 20:45 · Serie A
    3.42
    +1%
    Napoli 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.4 · Model 30%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
  • Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
    Sun 21:00 · La Liga
    3.86
    +5%
    Real Sociedad 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.5 · Model 27%
    L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1543%13/30
  • TenerifeFC Andorra
    Sun 21:00 · La Liga 2
    2.41
    -1%
    Tenerife 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 41%
    L520%2/10L1040%8/20L1550%14/28
  • RSB BerkaneRaja Casablanca
    Sun 21:00 · Botola Pro
    –
    –
    RSB Berkane 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.0 · Model 42%
    L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1540%12/30
  • Vancouver WhitecapsSeattle Sounders
    Sun 21:30 · Major League Soccer
    4.34
    +3%
    Seattle Sounders 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 24%
    L520%2/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
  • Sporting BragaFamalicão
    Sun 21:30 · Liga Portugal
    3.81
    +1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 27%
    L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1537%11/30
  • GrêmioAtlético Mineiro
    Sun 22:30 · Copa do Brasil
    2.60
    0%
    Grêmio 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 38%
    L550%5/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
  • BelgranoBarracas Central
    Sun 22:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    4.92
    +11%
    Barracas Central 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.1 · Model 23%
    L550%5/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
  • Newell's Old BoysUnión Santa Fe
    Sun 22:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    3.90
    -2%
    Unión Santa Fe 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 25%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
  • Atlanta UnitedToronto
    Sun 22:30 · Major League Soccer
    4.11
    -2%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.5 · Model 24%
    L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
  • Nashville SCNew York RB
    Sun 22:30 · Major League Soccer
    4.93
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.0 · Model 21%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
  • NovorizontinoOperário PR
    Sun 22:30 · Serie B
    6.80
    +6%
    Operário PR 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.0 · Model 16%
    L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
  • CuiabáSão Bernardo
    Sun 22:30 · Serie B
    3.33
    -3%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 29%
    L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
  • LiverpoolJuventud
    Mon 00:00 · Primera Division
    3.38
    -2%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.4–0.9 · Model 29%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
  • Santos LagunaNecaxa
    Mon 00:00 · Liga MX
    4.15
    -2%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 24%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1517%5/30
  • LanúsGimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
    Mon 00:45 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
    4.43
    +6%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.0 · Model 24%
    L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1517%5/30
  • New EnglandInter Miami
    Mon 01:00 · Major League Soccer
    3.07
    +7%
    New England 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 35%
    L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1543%13/30
  • Cruz AzulLeón
    Mon 02:10 · Liga MX
    4.43
    +3%
    León 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 23%
    L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
  • Los Angeles FCMinnesota United
    Mon 02:30 · Major League Soccer
    4.54
    +8%
    Minnesota United 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 24%
    L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
  • Portland TimbersHouston Dynamo
    Mon 03:45 · Major League Soccer
    4.43
    +10%
    Houston Dynamo 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 25%
    L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
  • Zorya LuhanskEpitsentr Dunayivtsi
    Mon 12:00 · Premier League
    3.51
    -6%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 27%
    L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1540%12/30
  • Kryvbas Kryvyi RihDynamo Kyiv
    Mon 12:00 · Premier League
    4.85
    +6%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 22%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
  • Pakhtakornew teamAl Nassr
    Mon 14:45 · AFC Champions League Elite
    4.89
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 21%
    L522%2/9L1021%3/14L1516%3/19
  • Cherno MoreBotev Vratsa
    Mon 16:00 · First League
    4.19
    +6%
    Botev Vratsa 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 25%
    L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1547%14/30
  • Krylya SovetovZenit
    Mon 16:00 · Premier League
    4.43
    +3%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 23%
    L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
  • Real OviedoLas Palmas
    Mon 16:15 · La Liga 2
    4.81
    +9%
    Las Palmas 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.3 · Model 23%
    L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1540%12/30
  • VoluntariFarul Constanța
    Mon 16:30 · Superliga
    2.90
    -2%
    Voluntari 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.6 · Model 34%
    L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1525%7/28
  • Al WaslAl Quwa Al Jawiyanew team
    Mon 17:00 · AFC Champions League Elite
    1.24
    -16%
    Al Wasl 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 68%
    L550%4/8L1062%8/13L1561%11/18
  • Tractor SaziNeftchinew team
    Mon 17:00 · AFC Champions League Elite
    2.14
    -4%
    Tractor Sazi 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.0 · Model 45%
    L538%3/8L1046%6/13L1550%9/18
  • AtromitosVolos NFC
    Mon 17:00 · Super League
    4.05
    -4%
    Volos NFC 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 24%
    L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1: the model's view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 1 Nov, 17:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

LeagueHomeDrawAway
1. HNL47.8%25.3%26.9%
1. Lig43.5%23.8%32.7%
2. Bundesliga46.2%27.2%26.6%
A-League Men36.8%28.8%34.4%
A-League Women44.2%19.4%36.4%
Admiral Bundesliga48.2%25.7%26.2%
AFC Champions League Elite46.9%23.1%30%
AFC Champions League Two48.3%21.7%30%
Africa Cup of Nations46.2%25%28.8%
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications50%21.7%28.3%
Allsvenskan39%24.2%36.8%
Botola Pro36.5%32.2%31.3%
Brasileiro Women42.5%26.3%31.1%
Bundesliga45.5%25.1%29.4%
CAF Champions League51%29.1%19.9%
Carabao Cup40.9%18.3%40.9%
Challenger Pro League44.3%22.4%33.3%
Champions League51.6%17.6%30.8%
Championship42.7%26%31.4%
Chance Liga44.6%20.1%35.3%
CONCACAF Nations League45.9%10.8%43.2%
Copa Del Rey26.9%10.9%62.2%
Copa do Brasil44.2%30.8%25%
Copa Libertadores44.8%26.6%28.6%
Copa Sudamericana44.6%31.8%23.6%
Coppa Italia60%24.4%15.6%
Coupe de France23.2%26.6%50.2%
DFB Pokal27%11.1%61.9%
Eerste Divisie44.4%20.9%34.8%
Ekstraklasa44.1%26.3%29.6%
Eliteserien51.3%17.7%31%
Enterprise National League45.4%20.1%34.5%
Eredivisie40.4%28.3%31.2%
Europa Conference League47%23.8%29.2%
Europa League49.8%19%31.2%
FA Cup43.6%18.5%37.9%
First Division37.9%31.3%30.8%
First League43.1%25.4%31.5%
FNL40.5%27.7%31.8%
Indian Super League37.7%32.5%29.8%
J1 League46.3%21.9%31.9%
K League 132.1%33.9%33.9%
KNVB Beker40.4%11%48.6%
La Liga48.6%24.3%27.2%
La Liga 245.7%23.3%31.1%
League One44.3%27.1%28.6%
League Two43.5%27.5%29%
Liga MX43.3%26.1%30.6%
Liga Portugal41.4%26.1%32.6%
Liga Profesional de Fútbol41.6%29.1%29.3%
Ligat ha'Al40.4%24.6%35%
Ligue 144.3%24.7%30.9%
Ligue 132.6%28.3%39%
Ligue 237.4%31.1%31.5%
Major League Soccer45.7%26.4%28%
Persian Gulf Pro League40.7%35.1%24.2%
Premier League36.3%33.8%29.9%
Premier League43.3%27.9%28.8%
Premier League35.1%35.1%29.9%
Premier League40.2%29.2%30.6%
Premier League40.8%26.6%32.6%
Premiership46.2%23.5%30.3%
Primera Division41.2%25.9%33%
Pro League44%23.6%32.5%
Pro League42.9%22.6%34.6%
Russian Cup40.6%28.7%30.8%
Serie A41.4%21.6%37%
Serie A48.8%27.2%24%
Serie B44.8%27.9%27.4%
Serie B44.2%29.1%26.8%
Stars League36.4%23.5%40.2%
Super League43.8%26.4%29.8%
Super League39.9%25.1%35%
Super League42.6%27%30.4%
Super Lig45.2%25.6%29.2%
Superliga49.5%24.1%26.4%
Superliga41.6%27.4%31.1%
Taça De Portugal44.5%10.3%45.2%
UAE Pro League37.1%25.7%37.1%
UEFA Nations League38%25.9%36.1%
UEFA Women's Champions League50%19.1%30.9%
UEFA Youth League49.8%17.5%32.7%
V-League44.2%21.8%34%
Veikkausliiga44.9%27.5%27.5%
WC Qualification Europe46.7%20%33.3%
Women's Super League44.4%20.5%35.1%
World Cup48.1%23.1%28.8%
World Cup Women Qualification Europe46.5%13.9%39.6%
Youth League50%15.7%34.3%

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the model EV is a small tilt on the price rather than a guess against it — and still the model's view, not a proven betting edge.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing an EV: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.