Match Result Screener
Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and whether the price is value.
Match Result Screener
Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the value against Pinnacle where the match is priced.
Smart views
405 matches · best line per match
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cagliari 1X2 | 3.30 30% | 34%2.97 | +11% | 1.5–1.1 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 50%15/30 |   | |
Frosinone 1X2 | 3.95 25% | 28%3.56 | +11% | 1.5–1.5 | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 53%16/30 |   | |
Eintracht Frankfurt 1X2 | 5.89 17% | 19%5.35 | +10% | 2.0–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.87 17% | 19%5.37 | +9% | 2.0–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Sassuolo 1X2 | 5.66 18% | 19%5.18 | +9% | 1.8–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 25%5/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Troyes 1X2 | 5.09 20% | 21%4.67 | +9% | 1.8–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.99 17% | 18%5.52 | +9% | 1.9–1.9 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Crystal Palace 1X2 | 2.97 34% | 36%2.77 | +7% | 1.8–1.4 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Coventry City 1X2 | 3.09 32% | 34%2.90 | +7% | 1.5–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.75 17% | 19%5.40 | +6% | 2.1–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Elche 1X2 | 4.53 22% | 23%4.26 | +6% | 1.6–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2 | 3.12 32% | 34%2.94 | +6% | 1.6–1.8 | 60%6/10 | 45%9/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.89 20% | 22%4.62 | +6% | 1.7–1.2 | 10%1/10 | 15%3/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Valencia 1X2 | 3.21 31% | 33%3.04 | +6% | 1.6–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
AFC Bournemouth 1X2 | 3.97 25% | 27%3.76 | +6% | 1.6–1.4 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Celta de Vigo 1X2 | 2.87 35% | 37%2.73 | +5% | 1.6–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Sunderland 1X2 | 3.17 32% | 33%3.03 | +5% | 1.4–1.3 | 40%4/10 | 35%7/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.35 23% | 24%4.16 | +4% | 1.4–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 15%3/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.28 19% | 20%5.06 | +4% | 2.0–1.6 | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 10%3/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.08 25% | 25%3.93 | +4% | 1.4–1.1 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.67 21% | 22%4.50 | +4% | 1.7–1.0 | 20%2/10 | 10%2/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.43 23% | 23%4.30 | +3% | 1.6–1.0 | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Tottenham Hotspur 1X2 | 4.55 22% | 23%4.42 | +3% | 1.9–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 30%6/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Málaga 1X2 | 4.97 20% | 21%4.84 | +3% | 1.6–1.1 | 40%4/10 | 30%6/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Venezia 1X2 | 3.83 26% | 27%3.74 | +3% | 1.5–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 45%9/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.11 24% | 25%4.01 | +3% | 1.4–1.3 | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Schalke 04 1X2 | 3.33 30% | 31%3.26 | +2% | 1.5–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
Strasbourg 1X2 | 4.06 25% | 25%4.02 | +1% | 2.0–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Werder Bremen 1X2 | 4.34 23% | 23%4.31 | +1% | 2.0–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 30%6/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Paderborn 1X2 | 2.26 44% | 44%2.25 | 0% | 1.8–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Monza 1X2 | 3.49 29% | 29%3.49 | 0% | 1.6–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.29 23% | 23%4.34 | -1% | 1.8–1.6 | 10%1/10 | 10%2/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Angers SCO 1X2 | 3.04 33% | 32%3.08 | -1% | 1.3–1.4 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
LOSC Lille 1X2 | 3.83 26% | 26%3.89 | -2% | 1.6–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 25%5/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Le Mans 1X2 | 3.35 30% | 29%3.41 | -2% | 1.8–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
FC Augsburg 1X2 | 1.85 54% | 53%1.89 | -2% | 2.2–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Roma 1X2 | 2.56 39% | 38%2.62 | -2% | 1.4–1.5 | 40%4/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 |   | |
Nice 1X2 | 3.34 30% | 29%3.42 | -2% | 1.6–1.3 | 40%4/10 | 35%7/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.04 25% | 24%4.15 | -3% | 1.6–1.8 | 0%0/10 | 10%2/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Lens 1X2 | 2.40 42% | 41%2.47 | -3% | 1.6–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Racing Santander 1X2 | 2.43 41% | 40%2.51 | -3% | 1.6–1.5 | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.49 29% | 27%3.67 | -5% | 1.7–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 15%3/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Atlético Madrid 1X2 | 1.29 78% | 66%1.51 | -14% | 1.6–1.1 | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Orlando Pirates 1X2 | – | 60%1.65 | – | 1.8–0.7 | 88%7/8 | 77%10/13 | 72%13/18 |   | |
Zamalek 1X2 | – | 56%1.78 | – | 1.6–0.8 | 88%7/8 | 77%10/13 | 83%15/18 |   | |
Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2 | – | 52%1.91 | – | 1.3–2.0 | 90%9/10 | 75%15/20 | 63%19/30 |  | |
Rostov U19 1X2 | – | 42%2.39 | – | 1.5–1.7 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 67%20/30 |   | |
Al Ahli 1X2 | – | 60%1.67 | – | 2.2–1.1 | 80%8/10 | 70%14/20 | 67%20/30 |   | |
Krasnodar U19 1X2 | – | 53%1.89 | – | 1.4–2.1 | 90%9/10 | 70%14/20 | 60%18/30 |   | |
Barnet 1X2 | – | 47%2.11 | – | 1.9–1.4 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 53%16/30 |   |
Cagliari
BolognaSat 13:00 · Serie A3.30+11%Cagliari 1X2xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 34%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Atalanta
FrosinoneSun 14:00 · Serie A3.95+11%Frosinone 1X2xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 28%L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht FrankfurtSat 16:30 · Bundesliga5.89+10%Eintracht Frankfurt 1X2xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 19%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia MönchengladbachTomorrow 18:30 · Bundesliga5.87+9%Draw 1X2xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 19%L510%1/10L105%1/20L1527%8/30
Como
SassuoloSat 13:00 · Serie A5.66+9%Sassuolo 1X2xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 19%L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Toulouse
TroyesSat 15:15 · Ligue 15.09+9%Troyes 1X2xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1540%12/30
SC Freiburg
FC Bayern MünchenSun 16:30 · Bundesliga5.99+9%Draw 1X2xG 1.9–1.9 · Model 18%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
Crystal Palace
Newcastle UnitedSun 14:00 · Premier League2.97+7%Crystal Palace 1X2xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 36%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Coventry City
FulhamSat 14:00 · Premier League3.09+7%Coventry City 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 34%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
Inter
FiorentinaSun 11:30 · Serie A5.75+6%Draw 1X2xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 19%L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1530%9/30
Rayo Vallecano
ElcheSat 12:00 · La Liga4.53+6%Elche 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 23%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove AlbionSun 14:00 · Premier League3.12+6%Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2xG 1.6–1.8 · Model 34%L560%6/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
Olympique Marseille
Le HavreSun 16:15 · Ligue 14.89+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.7–1.2 · Model 22%L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1527%8/30
Valencia
VillarrealSat 16:30 · La Liga3.21+6%Valencia 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 33%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Manchester United
AFC BournemouthSun 14:00 · Premier League3.97+6%AFC Bournemouth 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 27%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
Celta de Vigo
Real BetisSun 15:15 · La Liga2.87+5%Celta de Vigo 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 37%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
Sunderland
Leeds UnitedSun 16:30 · Premier League3.17+5%Sunderland 1X2xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 33%L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
RB Leipzig
ElversbergSat 13:30 · Bundesliga5.28+4%Draw 1X2xG 2.0–1.6 · Model 20%L510%1/10L105%1/20L1510%3/30
Athletic Club
GetafeSun 13:00 · La Liga4.08+4%Draw 1X2xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 25%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1527%8/30
Arsenal
EvertonSat 14:00 · Premier League4.43+3%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.0 · Model 23%L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
Chelsea
Tottenham HotspurSat 16:30 · Premier League4.55+3%Tottenham Hotspur 1X2xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 23%L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
Deportivo Alavés
MálagaTomorrow 19:00 · La Liga4.97+3%Málaga 1X2xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 21%L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Genoa
VeneziaSun 14:00 · Serie A3.83+3%Venezia 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 27%L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1547%14/30
Hull City
BrentfordSun 14:00 · Premier League4.11+3%Draw 1X2xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 25%L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1543%13/30
FC Köln
Schalke 04Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga3.33+2%Schalke 04 1X2xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 31%L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1547%14/30
Rennes
StrasbourgSun 16:15 · Ligue 14.06+1%Strasbourg 1X2xG 2.0–1.4 · Model 25%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
FSV Mainz 05
Werder BremenSat 13:30 · Bundesliga4.34+1%Werder Bremen 1X2xG 2.0–1.4 · Model 23%L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
Paderborn
Hamburger SVSat 13:30 · Bundesliga2.260%Paderborn 1X2xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 44%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1543%13/30
Torino
MonzaTomorrow 18:45 · Serie A3.490%Monza 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 29%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
Aston Villa
Manchester CitySat 11:30 · Premier League4.29-1%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 23%L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
Angers SCO
LorientSun 16:15 · Ligue 13.04-1%Angers SCO 1X2xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 32%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Monaco
LOSC LilleSun 14:00 · Ligue 13.83-2%LOSC Lille 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 26%L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1533%10/30
Auxerre
Le MansSun 16:15 · Ligue 13.35-2%Le Mans 1X2xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 29%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
FC Augsburg
FC Union BerlinSat 13:30 · Bundesliga1.85-2%FC Augsburg 1X2xG 2.2–1.4 · Model 53%L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Brest
NiceTomorrow 18:45 · Ligue 13.34-2%Nice 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 29%L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
TSG Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 LeverkusenSun 14:30 · Bundesliga4.04-3%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.8 · Model 24%L50%0/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
Racing Santander
EspanyolSat 14:15 · La Liga2.43-3%Racing Santander 1X2xG 1.6–1.5 · Model 40%L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Ipswich Town
Nottingham ForestTomorrow 19:00 · Premier League3.49-5%Draw 1X2xG 1.7–1.3 · Model 27%L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
Atlético Madrid
Deportivo La CoruñaSat 19:00 · La Liga1.29-14%Atlético Madrid 1X2xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 66%L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
Orlando Pirates
African StarsTomorrow 18:00 · CAF Champions League––Orlando Pirates 1X2xG 1.8–0.7 · Model 60%L588%7/8L1077%10/13L1572%13/18
Zamalek
APRSat 17:00 · CAF Champions League––Zamalek 1X2xG 1.6–0.8 · Model 56%L588%7/8L1077%10/13L1583%15/18
JablonecBrighton & Hove AlbionToday 16:45 · Europa Conference League––Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2xG 1.3–2.0 · Model 52%L590%9/10L1075%15/20L1563%19/30
Fakel U19
Rostov U19Tomorrow 12:00 · Youth League––Rostov U19 1X2xG 1.5–1.7 · Model 42%L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
Al Ahli
Al KhaleejToday 18:00 · Pro League––Al Ahli 1X2xG 2.2–1.1 · Model 60%L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
Dinamo Moskva U19
Krasnodar U19Tomorrow 16:00 · Youth League––Krasnodar U19 1X2xG 1.4–2.1 · Model 53%L590%9/10L1070%14/20L1560%18/30
Barnet
Oldham AthleticSat 14:00 · League Two––Barnet 1X2xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 47%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1553%16/30
Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 22 Oct, 16:17.
Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)
| League | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. HNL | 45.2% | 25.9% | 28.9% |
| 1. Lig | 46.8% | 22.2% | 31% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 47.4% | 26.9% | 25.6% |
| A-League Men | 37.7% | 27.2% | 35.2% |
| A-League Women | 43.4% | 19.7% | 36.9% |
| Admiral Bundesliga | 47.7% | 24.8% | 27.5% |
| AFC Champions League Elite | 46.8% | 25.3% | 27.8% |
| AFC Champions League Two | 50.6% | 20.2% | 29.2% |
| Africa Cup of Nations | 46.2% | 25% | 28.8% |
| Allsvenskan | 35.8% | 27.5% | 36.7% |
| Botola Pro | 40.2% | 32.5% | 27.3% |
| Brasileiro Women | 42.1% | 26.2% | 31.8% |
| Bundesliga | 46.1% | 24.6% | 29.3% |
| CAF Champions League | 53.1% | 29.2% | 17.7% |
| Carabao Cup | 45% | 7.5% | 47.5% |
| Challenger Pro League | 43.1% | 24.9% | 32% |
| Champions League | 51% | 16.5% | 32.5% |
| Championship | 43% | 25.3% | 31.8% |
| Chance Liga | 45.7% | 19.7% | 34.6% |
| Copa Del Rey | 25.6% | 10.3% | 64.1% |
| Copa do Brasil | 43.2% | 30.3% | 26.5% |
| Copa Libertadores | 49.2% | 22% | 28.8% |
| Copa Sudamericana | 42.4% | 34.7% | 22.9% |
| Coppa Italia | 61.1% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Coupe de France | 23.2% | 26.6% | 50.2% |
| DFB Pokal | 22.4% | 8.2% | 69.4% |
| Eerste Divisie | 40.1% | 22.1% | 37.9% |
| Ekstraklasa | 42.9% | 28.8% | 28.3% |
| Eliteserien | 54.3% | 16.6% | 29.1% |
| Enterprise National League | 45% | 22.1% | 32.9% |
| Eredivisie | 42.9% | 28.2% | 29% |
| Europa Conference League | 50.3% | 21.5% | 28.2% |
| Europa League | 52.2% | 17% | 30.8% |
| FA Cup | 48.2% | 17.5% | 34.3% |
| First Division | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| First League | 43.9% | 25.8% | 30.3% |
| FNL | 42.8% | 29.4% | 27.8% |
| Indian Super League | 38.1% | 32% | 29.9% |
| J1 League | 46.7% | 23.3% | 30% |
| K League 1 | 31.8% | 31.1% | 37.1% |
| KNVB Beker | 42.1% | 8.8% | 49.1% |
| La Liga | 48.4% | 24.6% | 27% |
| La Liga 2 | 45.4% | 23.8% | 30.8% |
| League One | 45.7% | 26% | 28.3% |
| League Two | 41.8% | 26.1% | 32.2% |
| Liga MX | 46.7% | 25.3% | 27.9% |
| Liga Portugal | 42.4% | 27.2% | 30.5% |
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 39.4% | 30.1% | 30.4% |
| Ligat ha'Al | 40.4% | 26.8% | 32.8% |
| Ligue 1 | 44.3% | 24.3% | 31.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 33.3% | 27.9% | 38.8% |
| Ligue 2 | 39.6% | 29.8% | 30.7% |
| Major League Soccer | 47.1% | 24.1% | 28.8% |
| Persian Gulf Pro League | 43.4% | 31.8% | 24.8% |
| Premier League | 35.3% | 34.7% | 30% |
| Premier League | 46.7% | 27% | 26.3% |
| Premier League | 33.9% | 37.6% | 28.5% |
| Premier League | 41.1% | 28.4% | 30.5% |
| Premier League | 40.4% | 25.1% | 34.4% |
| Premiership | 48.6% | 23.2% | 28.1% |
| Primera Division | 40.6% | 25.1% | 34.2% |
| Pro League | 44.4% | 23.3% | 32.4% |
| Pro League | 40.8% | 24% | 35.2% |
| Russian Cup | 39.5% | 23.3% | 37.2% |
| Serie A | 49.6% | 25.9% | 24.5% |
| Serie A | 40.8% | 23.2% | 36.1% |
| Serie B | 46.3% | 29.1% | 24.7% |
| Serie B | 41.1% | 31.1% | 27.9% |
| Stars League | 35.3% | 19.6% | 45.1% |
| Super League | 45.2% | 25% | 29.8% |
| Super League | 40.1% | 26.9% | 32.9% |
| Super League | 41.2% | 28.9% | 29.9% |
| Super Lig | 45.6% | 27.8% | 26.6% |
| Superliga | 47.5% | 24.4% | 28.1% |
| Superliga | 37.8% | 27.6% | 34.6% |
| Taça De Portugal | 48.3% | 11.7% | 40% |
| UAE Pro League | 38.1% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| UEFA Women's Champions League | 47.4% | 21.1% | 31.6% |
| UEFA Youth League | 49.3% | 18.9% | 31.8% |
| V-League | 43.3% | 24.1% | 32.6% |
| Veikkausliiga | 47.1% | 31.7% | 21.2% |
| WC Qualification Europe | 46.7% | 20% | 33.3% |
| Women's Super League | 46.2% | 18.3% | 35.6% |
| World Cup | 47.9% | 24.5% | 27.7% |
| World Cup Women Qualification Europe | 46.5% | 13.9% | 39.6% |
| Youth League | 45.3% | 18.9% | 35.8% |
How the Match Result Screener Works
Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the value it finds is a tilt on the price rather than a guess against it.
Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing value: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.
Using It With Other Stats
Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.