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Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and whether the price is value.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the value against Pinnacle where the match is priced.

Kick-off

Selection

L10 hit rate

0–100%

Min. odds

Smart views
400 matches · best line per match
Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates and model value
LineOddsL15Last 10 · home / away
CagliariBologna
Sat 13:00 · Serie A
Cagliari
1X2
3.30
30%
34%2.97+11%1.5–1.150%5/1050%10/2050%15/30
WWWLLWWWDL
WWDLLDLDWL
AtalantaFrosinone
Sun 14:00 · Serie A
Frosinone
1X2
3.95
25%
28%3.56+11%1.5–1.560%6/1050%10/2053%16/30
DWWWLLLWWL
WWLWDWDWLW
Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
Sat 16:30 · Bundesliga
Eintracht Frankfurt
1X2
5.89
17%
19%5.35+10%2.0–1.330%3/1020%4/2023%7/30
WWWWWWDLDW
LLDWDLWDLW
VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
Tomorrow 18:30 · Bundesliga
Draw
1X2
5.87
17%
19%5.37+9%2.0–1.310%1/105%1/2027%8/30
WLWWLLWWLD
WLWWLLLLLL
ComoSassuolo
Sat 13:00 · Serie A
Sassuolo
1X2
5.66
18%
19%5.18+9%1.8–1.230%3/1025%5/2027%8/30
WDWWWWLDLW
LWLWDDWLDL
ToulouseTroyes
Sat 15:15 · Ligue 1
Troyes
1X2
5.09
20%
21%4.67+9%1.8–1.310%1/1025%5/2040%12/30
DWWLDLDWDW
WWLDWLLLLL
SC FreiburgFC Bayern München
Sun 16:30 · Bundesliga
Draw
1X2
5.99
17%
18%5.52+9%1.9–1.930%3/1020%4/2023%7/30
WWWWWWDWWL
WWWDWWWDDW
Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
Sun 14:00 · Premier League
Crystal Palace
1X2
2.97
34%
36%2.77+7%1.8–1.450%5/1040%8/2037%11/30
LLWWLWDWLL
LDWWDWLWLL
Coventry CityFulham
Sat 14:00 · Premier League
Coventry City
1X2
3.09
32%
34%2.90+7%1.5–1.330%3/1040%8/2040%12/30
WLWLLLLWWL
WLWLLDWDLW
InterFiorentina
Sun 11:30 · Serie A
Draw
1X2
5.75
17%
19%5.40+6%2.1–1.320%2/1020%4/2030%9/30
DWWWLWDWLW
DWLLLWWDLL
Rayo VallecanoElche
Sat 12:00 · La Liga
Elche
1X2
4.53
22%
23%4.26+6%1.6–1.320%2/1025%5/2023%7/30
WLLDLWLWDD
DDLLLDLWDD
LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
Sun 14:00 · Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion
1X2
3.12
32%
34%2.94+6%1.6–1.860%6/1045%9/2040%12/30
DWWDWWLWWW
WWLDWWWWWW
Olympique MarseilleLe Havre
Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
Draw
1X2
4.89
20%
22%4.62+6%1.7–1.210%1/1015%3/2027%8/30
WWLLLLLWLW
DLWLDLDLLL
ValenciaVillarreal
Sat 16:30 · La Liga
Valencia
1X2
3.21
31%
33%3.04+6%1.6–1.430%3/1040%8/2043%13/30
WDLLLLWLDD
LLLLWWLWDL
Manchester UnitedAFC Bournemouth
Sun 14:00 · Premier League
AFC Bournemouth
1X2
3.97
25%
27%3.76+6%1.6–1.450%5/1040%8/2033%10/30
LWDWLLDDLD
LDDWDWLLWW
Celta de VigoReal Betis
Sun 15:15 · La Liga
Celta de Vigo
1X2
2.87
35%
37%2.73+5%1.6–1.330%3/1020%4/2023%7/30
LLDDDLWDLW
WLWWWWDWWL
SunderlandLeeds United
Sun 16:30 · Premier League
Sunderland
1X2
3.17
32%
33%3.03+5%1.4–1.340%4/1035%7/2033%10/30
LWDWLWLLWL
LWWDDLWDLD
RB LeipzigElversberg
Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
Draw
1X2
5.28
19%
20%5.06+4%2.0–1.610%1/105%1/2010%3/30
LWWLLWLWWL
WLWWWWLDLW
Athletic ClubGetafe
Sun 13:00 · La Liga
Draw
1X2
4.08
25%
25%3.93+4%1.4–1.150%5/1040%8/2027%8/30
LDLLLWWDDD
WLLDDLWLDD
LazioParma
Sat 18:45 · Serie A
Draw
1X2
4.67
21%
22%4.50+4%1.7–1.020%2/1010%2/2013%4/30
LWLWWWDWWW
WWLLLDLWLL
ArsenalEverton
Sat 14:00 · Premier League
Draw
1X2
4.43
23%
23%4.30+3%1.6–1.020%2/1020%4/2023%7/30
WWWWWWLWWW
LWWDDDWWDL
ChelseaTottenham Hotspur
Sat 16:30 · Premier League
Tottenham Hotspur
1X2
4.55
22%
23%4.42+3%1.9–1.320%2/1030%6/2033%10/30
LWWWLWDLWW
WLWLDDLLDW
Deportivo AlavésMálaga
Tomorrow 19:00 · La Liga
Málaga
1X2
4.97
20%
21%4.84+3%1.6–1.140%4/1030%6/2030%9/30
LWDWWLLDLL
WLDLDDLLDL
GenoaVenezia
Sun 14:00 · Serie A
Venezia
1X2
3.83
26%
27%3.74+3%1.5–1.330%3/1045%9/2047%14/30
LWLLLDWLWL
WWLLLLLLLW
Hull CityBrentford
Sun 14:00 · Premier League
Draw
1X2
4.11
24%
25%4.01+3%1.4–1.340%4/1045%9/2043%13/30
WWDWDLDLDL
DWWDDDWWDL
FC KölnSchalke 04
Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
Schalke 04
1X2
3.33
30%
31%3.26+2%1.5–1.440%4/1045%9/2047%14/30
DLLWWLDLWL
WLWWLDWDLL
RennesStrasbourg
Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
Strasbourg
1X2
4.06
25%
25%4.02+1%2.0–1.430%3/1035%7/2030%9/30
LDWWWDLWWL
DWWLWWDLLL
FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
Werder Bremen
1X2
4.34
23%
23%4.31+1%2.0–1.440%4/1030%6/2037%11/30
WLWWDWLWLW
LLLWLWDWDD
PaderbornHamburger SV
Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
Paderborn
1X2
2.26
44%
44%2.250%1.8–1.430%3/1030%6/2043%13/30
LDWWDLLWLD
WWDWLLLWWW
TorinoMonza
Tomorrow 18:45 · Serie A
Monza
1X2
3.49
29%
29%3.490%1.6–1.330%3/1040%8/2040%12/30
DWLLLWLDWW
LWLLWDLWLW
Aston VillaManchester City
Sat 11:30 · Premier League
Draw
1X2
4.29
23%
23%4.34-1%1.8–1.610%1/1010%2/2013%4/30
LLDWLWWDWW
WWWWWWWLWW
Angers SCOLorient
Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
Angers SCO
1X2
3.04
33%
32%3.08-1%1.3–1.420%2/1025%5/2027%8/30
LDDLWLDWLL
DWLDLWDLWW
MonacoLOSC Lille
Sun 14:00 · Ligue 1
LOSC Lille
1X2
3.83
26%
26%3.89-2%1.6–1.230%3/1025%5/2033%10/30
WWWWWDWDWL
LWDWLWLWLD
AuxerreLe Mans
Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
Le Mans
1X2
3.35
30%
29%3.41-2%1.8–1.430%3/1030%6/2037%11/30
WWWLLLWWLW
WDDDLDDWLL
FC AugsburgFC Union Berlin
Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
FC Augsburg
1X2
1.85
54%
53%1.89-2%2.2–1.440%4/1040%8/2043%13/30
WWLWWWDLDL
DWWWDLLLWD
NapoliRoma
Sat 16:00 · Serie A
Roma
1X2
2.56
39%
38%2.62-2%1.4–1.540%4/1055%11/2057%17/30
WLLLWDWLLW
WWWDWDDLWW
BrestNice
Tomorrow 18:45 · Ligue 1
Nice
1X2
3.34
30%
29%3.42-2%1.6–1.340%4/1035%7/2037%11/30
LLDDDWLLWD
LDWDLDLWWL
TSG HoffenheimBayer 04 Leverkusen
Sun 14:30 · Bundesliga
Draw
1X2
4.04
25%
24%4.15-3%1.6–1.80%0/1010%2/2013%4/30
LWLLWLLLLW
DWLWDWWWWW
LensParis
Sat 18:45 · Ligue 1
Lens
1X2
2.40
42%
41%2.47-3%1.6–1.430%3/1035%7/2033%10/30
WWLLWDLWLW
WLWDWWDWLW
Racing SantanderEspanyol
Sat 14:15 · La Liga
Racing Santander
1X2
2.43
41%
40%2.51-3%1.6–1.540%4/1040%8/2043%13/30
WDLWLWLLDL
DWLLDWLLDL
Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
Tomorrow 19:00 · Premier League
Draw
1X2
3.49
29%
27%3.67-5%1.7–1.310%1/1015%3/2023%7/30
WWWLLWLLWL
LDLLDDWLLL
Atlético MadridDeportivo La Coruña
Sat 19:00 · La Liga
Atlético Madrid
1X2
1.29
78%
66%1.51-14%1.6–1.160%6/1050%10/2043%13/30
WLLWWWWWWD
LDDWWDLDLD
Orlando PiratesAfrican Stars
Tomorrow 18:00 · CAF Champions League
Orlando Pirates
1X2
–
60%1.65–1.8–0.788%7/877%10/1372%13/18
WWDWDWWDWW
LLL
ZamalekAPR
Sat 17:00 · CAF Champions League
Zamalek
1X2
–
56%1.78–1.6–0.888%7/877%10/1383%15/18
WLWWDLWWWW
LLL
JablonecBrighton & Hove Albion
Today 16:45 · Europa Conference League
Brighton & Hove Albion
1X2
–
52%1.91–1.3–2.090%9/1075%15/2063%19/30
WLLLDLLWLL
WWLDWWWWWW
Fakel U19Rostov U19
Tomorrow 12:00 · Youth League
Rostov U19
1X2
–
42%2.39–1.5–1.780%8/1075%15/2067%20/30
WLLLLLLLLL
WWLWLDWWWD
Al AhliAl Khaleej
Today 18:00 · Pro League
Al Ahli
1X2
–
60%1.67–2.2–1.180%8/1070%14/2067%20/30
WWWLWWWWWW
DLWWLLLLWW
Dinamo Moskva U19Krasnodar U19
Tomorrow 16:00 · Youth League
Krasnodar U19
1X2
–
53%1.89–1.4–2.190%9/1070%14/2060%18/30
WLWLDLLLLD
WWLWDWWWWW
BarnetOldham Athletic
Sat 14:00 · League Two
Barnet
1X2
–
47%2.11–1.9–1.470%7/1070%14/2053%16/30
WWDWWWWWWL
LWDLLLLWWL
WesterloSK Beveren
Sat 18:45 · Pro League
SK Beveren
1X2
–
46%2.16–1.2–1.770%7/1070%14/2067%20/30
WWLWLDLWLL
WWWWWDWWWW
  • CagliariBologna
    Sat 13:00 · Serie A
    3.30
    +11%
    Cagliari 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 34%
    L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
    WWWLLWWWDL
    WWDLLDLDWL
  • AtalantaFrosinone
    Sun 14:00 · Serie A
    3.95
    +11%
    Frosinone 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 28%
    L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
    DWWWLLLWWL
    WWLWDWDWLW
  • Borussia DortmundEintracht Frankfurt
    Sat 16:30 · Bundesliga
    5.89
    +10%
    Eintracht Frankfurt 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 19%
    L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
    WWWWWWDLDW
    LLDWDLWDLW
  • VfB StuttgartBorussia Mönchengladbach
    Tomorrow 18:30 · Bundesliga
    5.87
    +9%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 19%
    L510%1/10L105%1/20L1527%8/30
    WLWWLLWWLD
    WLWWLLLLLL
  • ComoSassuolo
    Sat 13:00 · Serie A
    5.66
    +9%
    Sassuolo 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 19%
    L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
    WDWWWWLDLW
    LWLWDDWLDL
  • ToulouseTroyes
    Sat 15:15 · Ligue 1
    5.09
    +9%
    Troyes 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 21%
    L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1540%12/30
    DWWLDLDWDW
    WWLDWLLLLL
  • SC FreiburgFC Bayern München
    Sun 16:30 · Bundesliga
    5.99
    +9%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.9 · Model 18%
    L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
    WWWWWWDWWL
    WWWDWWWDDW
  • Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
    Sun 14:00 · Premier League
    2.97
    +7%
    Crystal Palace 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 36%
    L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
    LLWWLWDWLL
    LDWWDWLWLL
  • Coventry CityFulham
    Sat 14:00 · Premier League
    3.09
    +7%
    Coventry City 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 34%
    L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
    WLWLLLLWWL
    WLWLLDWDLW
  • InterFiorentina
    Sun 11:30 · Serie A
    5.75
    +6%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 19%
    L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1530%9/30
    DWWWLWDWLW
    DWLLLWWDLL
  • Rayo VallecanoElche
    Sat 12:00 · La Liga
    4.53
    +6%
    Elche 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 23%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
    WLLDLWLWDD
    DDLLLDLWDD
  • LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
    Sun 14:00 · Premier League
    3.12
    +6%
    Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.8 · Model 34%
    L560%6/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
    DWWDWWLWWW
    WWLDWWWWWW
  • Olympique MarseilleLe Havre
    Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
    4.89
    +6%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.2 · Model 22%
    L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1527%8/30
    WWLLLLLWLW
    DLWLDLDLLL
  • ValenciaVillarreal
    Sat 16:30 · La Liga
    3.21
    +6%
    Valencia 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 33%
    L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
    WDLLLLWLDD
    LLLLWWLWDL
  • Manchester UnitedAFC Bournemouth
    Sun 14:00 · Premier League
    3.97
    +6%
    AFC Bournemouth 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 27%
    L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
    LWDWLLDDLD
    LDDWDWLLWW
  • Celta de VigoReal Betis
    Sun 15:15 · La Liga
    2.87
    +5%
    Celta de Vigo 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 37%
    L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
    LLDDDLWDLW
    WLWWWWDWWL
  • SunderlandLeeds United
    Sun 16:30 · Premier League
    3.17
    +5%
    Sunderland 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 33%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
    LWDWLWLLWL
    LWWDDLWDLD
  • RB LeipzigElversberg
    Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
    5.28
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.6 · Model 20%
    L510%1/10L105%1/20L1510%3/30
    LWWLLWLWWL
    WLWWWWLDLW
  • Athletic ClubGetafe
    Sun 13:00 · La Liga
    4.08
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 25%
    L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1527%8/30
    LDLLLWWDDD
    WLLDDLWLDD
  • LazioParma
    Sat 18:45 · Serie A
    4.67
    +4%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.0 · Model 22%
    L520%2/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
    LWLWWWDWWW
    WWLLLDLWLL
  • ArsenalEverton
    Sat 14:00 · Premier League
    4.43
    +3%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.0 · Model 23%
    L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
    WWWWWWLWWW
    LWWDDDWWDL
  • ChelseaTottenham Hotspur
    Sat 16:30 · Premier League
    4.55
    +3%
    Tottenham Hotspur 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 23%
    L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
    LWWWLWDLWW
    WLWLDDLLDW
  • Deportivo AlavésMálaga
    Tomorrow 19:00 · La Liga
    4.97
    +3%
    Málaga 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 21%
    L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
    LWDWWLLDLL
    WLDLDDLLDL
  • GenoaVenezia
    Sun 14:00 · Serie A
    3.83
    +3%
    Venezia 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 27%
    L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1547%14/30
    LWLLLDWLWL
    WWLLLLLLLW
  • Hull CityBrentford
    Sun 14:00 · Premier League
    4.11
    +3%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 25%
    L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1543%13/30
    WWDWDLDLDL
    DWWDDDWWDL
  • FC KölnSchalke 04
    Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
    3.33
    +2%
    Schalke 04 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 31%
    L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1547%14/30
    DLLWWLDLWL
    WLWWLDWDLL
  • RennesStrasbourg
    Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
    4.06
    +1%
    Strasbourg 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.4 · Model 25%
    L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
    LDWWWDLWWL
    DWWLWWDLLL
  • FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen
    Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
    4.34
    +1%
    Werder Bremen 1X2
    xG 2.0–1.4 · Model 23%
    L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
    WLWWDWLWLW
    LLLWLWDWDD
  • PaderbornHamburger SV
    Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
    2.26
    0%
    Paderborn 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 44%
    L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1543%13/30
    LDWWDLLWLD
    WWDWLLLWWW
  • TorinoMonza
    Tomorrow 18:45 · Serie A
    3.49
    0%
    Monza 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 29%
    L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
    DWLLLWLDWW
    LWLLWDLWLW
  • Aston VillaManchester City
    Sat 11:30 · Premier League
    4.29
    -1%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 23%
    L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
    LLDWLWWDWW
    WWWWWWWLWW
  • Angers SCOLorient
    Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
    3.04
    -1%
    Angers SCO 1X2
    xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 32%
    L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
    LDDLWLDWLL
    DWLDLWDLWW
  • MonacoLOSC Lille
    Sun 14:00 · Ligue 1
    3.83
    -2%
    LOSC Lille 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 26%
    L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1533%10/30
    WWWWWDWDWL
    LWDWLWLWLD
  • AuxerreLe Mans
    Sun 16:15 · Ligue 1
    3.35
    -2%
    Le Mans 1X2
    xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 29%
    L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
    WWWLLLWWLW
    WDDDLDDWLL
  • FC AugsburgFC Union Berlin
    Sat 13:30 · Bundesliga
    1.85
    -2%
    FC Augsburg 1X2
    xG 2.2–1.4 · Model 53%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
    WWLWWWDLDL
    DWWWDLLLWD
  • NapoliRoma
    Sat 16:00 · Serie A
    2.56
    -2%
    Roma 1X2
    xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 38%
    L540%4/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
    WLLLWDWLLW
    WWWDWDDLWW
  • BrestNice
    Tomorrow 18:45 · Ligue 1
    3.34
    -2%
    Nice 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 29%
    L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
    LLDDDWLLWD
    LDWDLDLWWL
  • TSG HoffenheimBayer 04 Leverkusen
    Sun 14:30 · Bundesliga
    4.04
    -3%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.8 · Model 24%
    L50%0/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
    LWLLWLLLLW
    DWLWDWWWWW
  • LensParis
    Sat 18:45 · Ligue 1
    2.40
    -3%
    Lens 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 41%
    L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
    WWLLWDLWLW
    WLWDWWDWLW
  • Racing SantanderEspanyol
    Sat 14:15 · La Liga
    2.43
    -3%
    Racing Santander 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.5 · Model 40%
    L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
    WDLWLWLLDL
    DWLLDWLLDL
  • Ipswich TownNottingham Forest
    Tomorrow 19:00 · Premier League
    3.49
    -5%
    Draw 1X2
    xG 1.7–1.3 · Model 27%
    L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
    WWWLLWLLWL
    LDLLDDWLLL
  • Atlético MadridDeportivo La Coruña
    Sat 19:00 · La Liga
    1.29
    -14%
    Atlético Madrid 1X2
    xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 66%
    L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
    WLLWWWWWWD
    LDDWWDLDLD
  • Orlando PiratesAfrican Stars
    Tomorrow 18:00 · CAF Champions League
    –
    –
    Orlando Pirates 1X2
    xG 1.8–0.7 · Model 60%
    L588%7/8L1077%10/13L1572%13/18
    WWDWDWWDWW
    LLL
  • ZamalekAPR
    Sat 17:00 · CAF Champions League
    –
    –
    Zamalek 1X2
    xG 1.6–0.8 · Model 56%
    L588%7/8L1077%10/13L1583%15/18
    WLWWDLWWWW
    LLL
  • JablonecBrighton & Hove Albion
    Today 16:45 · Europa Conference League
    –
    –
    Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2
    xG 1.3–2.0 · Model 52%
    L590%9/10L1075%15/20L1563%19/30
    WLLLDLLWLL
    WWLDWWWWWW
  • Fakel U19Rostov U19
    Tomorrow 12:00 · Youth League
    –
    –
    Rostov U19 1X2
    xG 1.5–1.7 · Model 42%
    L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1567%20/30
    WLLLLLLLLL
    WWLWLDWWWD
  • Al AhliAl Khaleej
    Today 18:00 · Pro League
    –
    –
    Al Ahli 1X2
    xG 2.2–1.1 · Model 60%
    L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
    WWWLWWWWWW
    DLWWLLLLWW
  • Dinamo Moskva U19Krasnodar U19
    Tomorrow 16:00 · Youth League
    –
    –
    Krasnodar U19 1X2
    xG 1.4–2.1 · Model 53%
    L590%9/10L1070%14/20L1560%18/30
    WLWLDLLLLD
    WWLWDWWWWW
  • BarnetOldham Athletic
    Sat 14:00 · League Two
    –
    –
    Barnet 1X2
    xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 47%
    L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1553%16/30
    WWDWWWWWWL
    LWDLLLLWWL
  • WesterloSK Beveren
    Sat 18:45 · Pro League
    –
    –
    SK Beveren 1X2
    xG 1.2–1.7 · Model 46%
    L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
    WWLWLDLWLL
    WWWWWDWWWW

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 22 Oct, 16:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

LeagueMatchesHomeDrawAwayGoals
1. HNL13545.2%25.9%28.9%2.7
1. Lig29746.8%22.2%31%2.9
2. Bundesliga23447.4%26.9%25.6%2.91
A-League Men16237.7%27.2%35.2%2.83
A-League Women12243.4%19.7%36.9%2.77
Admiral Bundesliga14947.7%24.8%27.5%2.79
AFC Champions League Elite7946.8%25.3%27.8%2.49
AFC Champions League Two8950.6%20.2%29.2%2.85
Africa Cup of Nations5246.2%25%28.8%2.33
Allsvenskan12035.8%27.5%36.7%3.11
Botola Pro20940.2%32.5%27.3%2.17
Brasileiro Women10742.1%26.2%31.8%2.65
Bundesliga29746.1%24.6%29.3%3.3
CAF Champions League9653.1%29.2%17.7%1.99
Carabao Cup4045%7.5%47.5%3.63
Challenger Pro League19743.1%24.9%32%2.9
Champions League19451%16.5%32.5%3.55
Championship44743%25.3%31.8%2.64
Chance Liga18845.7%19.7%34.6%2.7
Copa Del Rey11725.6%10.3%64.1%3.37
Copa do Brasil13243.2%30.3%26.5%2.16
Copa Libertadores13249.2%22%28.8%2.18
Copa Sudamericana11842.4%34.7%22.9%2.25
Coppa Italia3661.1%19.4%19.4%2.78
Coupe de France20323.2%26.6%50.2%3.14
DFB Pokal4922.4%8.2%69.4%3.8
Eerste Divisie27240.1%22.1%37.9%3.18
Ekstraklasa21242.9%28.8%28.3%2.61
Eliteserien15154.3%16.6%29.1%3.17
Enterprise National League38045%22.1%32.9%2.97
Eredivisie24542.9%28.2%29%3.2
Europa Conference League16350.3%21.5%28.2%2.55
Europa League18252.2%17%30.8%2.81
FA Cup16648.2%17.5%34.3%3.36
First Division12040%25%35%2.79
First League19843.9%25.8%30.3%2.31
FNL18042.8%29.4%27.8%2.37
Indian Super League9738.1%32%29.9%2.46
J1 League6046.7%23.3%30%2.63
K League 113231.8%31.1%37.1%2.32
KNVB Beker5742.1%8.8%49.1%4.05
La Liga37848.4%24.6%27%2.8
La Liga 237045.4%23.8%30.8%2.65
League One43145.7%26%28.3%2.67
League Two42641.8%26.1%32.2%2.58
Liga MX22946.7%25.3%27.9%2.78
Liga Portugal24342.4%27.2%30.5%2.76
Liga Profesional de Fútbol33539.4%30.1%30.4%2.04
Ligat ha'Al19840.4%26.8%32.8%2.86
Ligue 129644.3%24.3%31.4%2.83
Ligue 116533.3%27.9%38.8%2.04
Ligue 222539.6%29.8%30.7%2.59
Major League Soccer27847.1%24.1%28.8%3.28
Persian Gulf Pro League12943.4%31.8%24.8%1.85
Premier League17035.3%34.7%30%2.05
Premier League15246.7%27%26.3%2.45
Premier League22233.8%37.8%28.4%2.13
Premier League37041.1%28.4%30.5%2.81
Premier League18340.4%25.1%34.4%2.58
Premiership18548.6%23.2%28.1%2.88
Primera Division18740.6%25.1%34.2%2.42
Pro League27544.4%23.3%32.4%2.96
Pro League23340.8%24%35.2%2.72
Russian Cup4339.5%23.3%37.2%2.95
Serie A28249.6%25.9%24.5%2.67
Serie A38040.8%23.2%36.1%2.57
Serie B32046.3%29.1%24.7%2.56
Serie B21941.1%31.1%27.9%2.24
Stars League10235.3%19.6%45.1%3.34
Super League16845.2%25%29.8%3.1
Super League16740.1%26.9%32.9%3.28
Super League19441.2%28.9%29.9%2.53
Super Lig24345.3%28%26.7%2.72
Superliga22147.5%24.4%28.1%2.5
Superliga12737.8%27.6%34.6%3
Taça De Portugal6048.3%11.7%40%2.52
UAE Pro League14738.1%28.6%33.3%2.98
UEFA Women's Champions League5747.4%21.1%31.6%3.39
UEFA Youth League14949.7%18.8%31.5%3.74
V-League14143.3%24.1%32.6%2.67
Veikkausliiga10447.1%31.7%21.2%2.78
WC Qualification Europe6046.7%20%33.3%3.45
Women's Super League10446.2%18.3%35.6%3.1
World Cup9447.9%24.5%27.7%2.93
World Cup Women Qualification Europe10146.5%13.9%39.6%3.45
Youth League14845.3%18.9%35.8%3.8

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the value it finds is a tilt on the price rather than a guess against it.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing value: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.