Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and whether the price is value.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the value against Pinnacle where the match is priced.

Smart views

164 matches · best line per match

Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates and model value
	Line	Odds						L15
Beşiktaşİstanbul Başakşehir Mon 17:00 · Super Lig	Draw 1X2	5.25 19%	21%4.82	+9%	1.5–1.3	20%2/10	30%6/20	23%7/30
ZamalekAl Mokawloon Wed 18:00 · Premier League	Al Mokawloon 1X2	4.47 22%	24%4.18	+7%	1.2–1.0	30%3/10	30%6/20	27%8/30
GoaSporting Delhi Wed 15:00 · Indian Super League	Sporting Delhi 1X2	5.43 18%	20%5.07	+7%	1.5–1.1	20%2/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
Borussia MönchengladbachKarlsruher SC Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal	Draw 1X2	5.55 18%	19%5.22	+6%	1.8–1.6	10%1/10	5%1/20	20%6/30
Sheffield WednesdayCambridge United Tue 20:45 · League One	Cambridge United 1X2	3.53 28%	30%3.32	+6%	1.3–1.4	50%5/10	40%8/20	47%14/30
FC KøbenhavnOdense BK Mon 19:00 · Superliga	Odense BK 1X2	6.47 15%	16%6.12	+6%	2.0–1.1	20%2/10	25%5/20	27%8/30
Santa ClaraBenfica Mon 19:45 · Liga Portugal	Draw 1X2	4.91 20%	22%4.65	+6%	1.4–1.6	10%1/10	20%4/20	27%8/30
SunderlandBrentford Wed 20:45 · Carabao Cup	Sunderland 1X2	3.64 27%	29%3.45	+6%	1.4–1.4	20%2/10	25%5/20	30%9/30
AC MilanBologna Wed 18:30 · Serie A	Bologna 1X2	5.26 19%	20%4.99	+6%	1.7–1.2	20%2/10	25%5/20	30%9/30
LiverpoolChelsea Wed 21:00 · Carabao Cup	Liverpool 1X2	2.87 35%	37%2.73	+5%	1.9–1.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal	Draw 1X2	5.31 19%	20%5.05	+5%	1.9–1.2	50%5/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
CelticDundee United Wed 20:45 · Premiership	Draw 1X2	5.50 18%	19%5.24	+5%	1.9–1.3	30%3/10	15%3/20	20%6/30
Holstein KielTSG Hoffenheim Wed 20:45 · DFB Pokal	Draw 1X2	4.94 20%	21%4.71	+5%	1.6–1.4	10%1/10	10%2/20	13%4/30
ElversbergDarmstadt 98 Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal	Darmstadt 98 1X2	5.74 17%	18%5.49	+5%	2.1–1.3	30%3/10	20%4/20	23%7/30
CearáGoiás Wed 00:00 · Serie B	Goiás 1X2	3.78 26%	28%3.62	+5%	1.2–1.2	70%7/10	55%11/20	50%15/30
National Bank of EgyptAl Masry Wed 15:00 · Premier League	National Bank of Egypt 1X2	2.69 37%	39%2.57	+5%	1.6–1.1	30%3/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
Istra 1961Hajduk Split Mon 18:00 · 1. HNL	Istra 1961 1X2	4.08 25%	26%3.90	+5%	1.2–1.4	20%2/10	25%5/20	23%7/30
FC AndorraBurgos Mon 20:30 · La Liga 2	Burgos 1X2	4.20 24%	25%4.05	+4%	1.3–1.1	80%8/10	50%10/20	47%14/30
BahiaSão Paulo Thu 01:30 · Serie A	São Paulo 1X2	3.80 26%	27%3.67	+4%	1.4–1.3	50%5/10	40%8/20	43%13/30
ATK Mohun BaganChennaiyin Mon 15:00 · Indian Super League	Draw 1X2	4.85 21%	21%4.71	+3%	1.7–0.9	30%3/10	30%6/20	30%9/30
Mardin BBManisa FK Mon 18:00 · 1. Lig	Manisa FK 1X2	4.37 23%	23%4.27	+2%	1.8–1.4	25%2/8	31%4/13	39%7/18
SevillaOsasuna Mon 21:00 · La Liga	Osasuna 1X2	4.32 23%	24%4.22	+2%	1.8–1.3	30%3/10	35%7/20	33%10/30
WalsallSalford City Mon 21:00 · League Two	Walsall 1X2	3.20 31%	32%3.13	+2%	1.4–1.3	20%2/10	15%3/20	23%7/30
ParmaUdinese Wed 18:30 · Serie A	Parma 1X2	2.96 34%	34%2.90	+2%	1.4–1.3	60%6/10	45%9/20	43%13/30
BoulogneReims Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2	Boulogne 1X2	3.23 31%	32%3.17	+2%	1.4–1.3	10%1/10	15%3/20	20%6/30
América MineiroCuiabá Mon 23:30 · Serie B	Draw 1X2	3.61 28%	28%3.54	+2%	1.0–1.1	10%1/10	15%3/20	27%8/30
JuventudeNáutico Tue 00:30 · Serie B	Draw 1X2	4.20 24%	24%4.14	+2%	1.5–1.0	50%5/10	35%7/20	33%10/30
Hannover 96Kaiserslautern Wed 20:45 · DFB Pokal	Kaiserslautern 1X2	3.81 26%	27%3.75	+2%	1.4–1.2	40%4/10	30%6/20	33%10/30
Bradford CityPeterborough United Tue 20:45 · Carabao Cup	Peterborough United 1X2	4.77 21%	21%4.70	+2%	1.6–1.1	30%3/10	20%4/20	23%7/30
RomaCagliari Tue 20:45 · Serie A	Draw 1X2	4.80 21%	21%4.73	+2%	1.9–1.0	30%3/10	20%4/20	17%5/30
Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurt Tue 18:00 · DFB Pokal	Hamburger SV 1X2	2.84 35%	36%2.80	+1%	1.8–1.7	50%5/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
HeartsRangers Wed 21:00 · Premiership	Hearts 1X2	3.00 33%	34%2.97	+1%	1.8–1.7	30%3/10	45%9/20	40%12/30
St. MirrenHibernian Wed 20:45 · Premiership	St. Mirren 1X2	3.40 29%	30%3.37	+1%	1.3–1.3	40%4/10	40%8/20	37%11/30
DundeeKilmarnock Wed 20:45 · Premiership	Kilmarnock 1X2	3.60 28%	28%3.57	+1%	1.8–1.6	50%5/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
SassuoloLazio Tue 18:30 · Serie A	Sassuolo 1X2	2.94 34%	34%2.92	+1%	1.5–1.4	10%1/10	25%5/20	30%9/30
MontpellierRed Star Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2	Montpellier 1X2	2.34 43%	43%2.32	+1%	1.7–1.1	50%5/10	40%8/20	40%12/30
PaderbornVfB Stuttgart Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal	Draw 1X2	4.42 23%	23%4.39	+1%	1.6–1.5	20%2/10	20%4/20	27%8/30
Dinamo ZagrebRijeka Tue 18:00 · 1. HNL	Rijeka 1X2	4.66 21%	22%4.64	0%	1.8–1.2	60%6/10	35%7/20	27%8/30
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal	Draw 1X2	5.02 20%	20%5.01	0%	2.1–1.4	30%3/10	20%4/20	20%6/30
ShinnikSpartak Kostroma Mon 17:30 · FNL	Shinnik 1X2	2.62 38%	38%2.63	0%	1.4–1.1	30%3/10	45%9/20	37%11/30
CoritibaGrêmio Mon 23:30 · Serie A	Grêmio 1X2	3.24 31%	31%3.25	0%	1.4–1.3	30%3/10	45%9/20	40%12/30
BragantinoChapecoense Wed 23:30 · Serie A	Draw 1X2	5.00 20%	20%5.02	0%	2.0–1.0	10%1/10	15%3/20	17%5/30
Argentinos JuniorsIndependiente Rivadavia Tue 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Independiente Rivadavia 1X2	3.62 28%	27%3.64	-1%	1.6–1.3	20%2/10	30%6/20	37%11/30
RizesporTrabzonspor Mon 17:00 · Super Lig	Rizespor 1X2	3.44 29%	29%3.46	-1%	1.4–1.6	10%1/10	25%5/20	27%8/30
GenoaJuventus Wed 20:45 · Serie A	Draw 1X2	3.81 26%	26%3.85	-1%	1.3–1.3	30%3/10	20%4/20	30%9/30
FC KölnFC Union Berlin Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal	FC Union Berlin 1X2	3.88 26%	26%3.92	-1%	1.9–1.4	40%4/10	45%9/20	33%10/30
SantosPalmeiras Wed 23:30 · Serie A	Santos 1X2	3.00 33%	33%3.03	-1%	1.4–1.4	40%4/10	35%7/20	23%7/30
Cherno MoreSeptemvri Sofia Tue 16:00 · First League	Draw 1X2	3.87 26%	26%3.91	-1%	1.3–1.2	10%1/10	35%7/20	30%9/30
VfL Bochum 1848FSV Mainz 05 Tue 18:00 · DFB Pokal	Draw 1X2	4.26 23%	23%4.32	-1%	1.6–1.6	20%2/10	15%3/20	23%7/30
Dynamo DresdenSchalke 04 Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal	Draw 1X2	3.93 25%	25%3.99	-1%	1.6–1.1	30%3/10	15%3/20	20%6/30

Beşiktaşİstanbul Başakşehir
Mon 17:00 · Super Lig
5.25
+9%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 21%
L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1523%7/30
ZamalekAl Mokawloon
Wed 18:00 · Premier League
4.47
+7%
Al Mokawloon 1X2
xG 1.2–1.0 · Model 24%
L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1527%8/30
GoaSporting Delhi
Wed 15:00 · Indian Super League
5.43
+7%
Sporting Delhi 1X2
xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 20%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
Borussia MönchengladbachKarlsruher SC
Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal
5.55
+6%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 19%
L510%1/10L105%1/20L1520%6/30
Sheffield WednesdayCambridge United
Tue 20:45 · League One
3.53
+6%
Cambridge United 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 30%
L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1547%14/30
FC KøbenhavnOdense BK
Mon 19:00 · Superliga
6.47
+6%
Odense BK 1X2
xG 2.0–1.1 · Model 16%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Santa ClaraBenfica
Mon 19:45 · Liga Portugal
4.91
+6%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 22%
L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
SunderlandBrentford
Wed 20:45 · Carabao Cup
3.64
+6%
Sunderland 1X2
xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 29%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
AC MilanBologna
Wed 18:30 · Serie A
5.26
+6%
Bologna 1X2
xG 1.7–1.2 · Model 20%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
LiverpoolChelsea
Wed 21:00 · Carabao Cup
2.87
+5%
Liverpool 1X2
xG 1.9–1.6 · Model 37%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Borussia DortmundWerder Bremen
Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal
5.31
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 20%
L550%5/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
CelticDundee United
Wed 20:45 · Premiership
5.50
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 19%
L530%3/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
Holstein KielTSG Hoffenheim
Wed 20:45 · DFB Pokal
4.94
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 21%
L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
ElversbergDarmstadt 98
Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal
5.74
+5%
Darmstadt 98 1X2
xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 18%
L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
CearáGoiás
Wed 00:00 · Serie B
3.78
+5%
Goiás 1X2
xG 1.2–1.2 · Model 28%
L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1550%15/30
National Bank of EgyptAl Masry
Wed 15:00 · Premier League
2.69
+5%
National Bank of Egypt 1X2
xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 39%
L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Istra 1961Hajduk Split
Mon 18:00 · 1. HNL
4.08
+5%
Istra 1961 1X2
xG 1.2–1.4 · Model 26%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
FC AndorraBurgos
Mon 20:30 · La Liga 2
4.20
+4%
Burgos 1X2
xG 1.3–1.1 · Model 25%
L580%8/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
BahiaSão Paulo
Thu 01:30 · Serie A
3.80
+4%
São Paulo 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 27%
L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
ATK Mohun BaganChennaiyin
Mon 15:00 · Indian Super League
4.85
+3%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.7–0.9 · Model 21%
L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Mardin BBManisa FK
Mon 18:00 · 1. Lig
4.37
+2%
Manisa FK 1X2
xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 23%
L525%2/8L1031%4/13L1539%7/18
SevillaOsasuna
Mon 21:00 · La Liga
4.32
+2%
Osasuna 1X2
xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 24%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
WalsallSalford City
Mon 21:00 · League Two
3.20
+2%
Walsall 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 32%
L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
ParmaUdinese
Wed 18:30 · Serie A
2.96
+2%
Parma 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 34%
L560%6/10L1045%9/20L1543%13/30
BoulogneReims
Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2
3.23
+2%
Boulogne 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 32%
L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
América MineiroCuiabá
Mon 23:30 · Serie B
3.61
+2%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.0–1.1 · Model 28%
L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1527%8/30
JuventudeNáutico
Tue 00:30 · Serie B
4.20
+2%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.5–1.0 · Model 24%
L550%5/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
Hannover 96Kaiserslautern
Wed 20:45 · DFB Pokal
3.81
+2%
Kaiserslautern 1X2
xG 1.4–1.2 · Model 27%
L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
Bradford CityPeterborough United
Tue 20:45 · Carabao Cup
4.77
+2%
Peterborough United 1X2
xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 21%
L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
RomaCagliari
Tue 20:45 · Serie A
4.80
+2%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.0 · Model 21%
L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1517%5/30
Hamburger SVEintracht Frankfurt
Tue 18:00 · DFB Pokal
2.84
+1%
Hamburger SV 1X2
xG 1.8–1.7 · Model 36%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
HeartsRangers
Wed 21:00 · Premiership
3.00
+1%
Hearts 1X2
xG 1.8–1.7 · Model 34%
L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
St. MirrenHibernian
Wed 20:45 · Premiership
3.40
+1%
St. Mirren 1X2
xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 30%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
DundeeKilmarnock
Wed 20:45 · Premiership
3.60
+1%
Kilmarnock 1X2
xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 28%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
SassuoloLazio
Tue 18:30 · Serie A
2.94
+1%
Sassuolo 1X2
xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 34%
L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
MontpellierRed Star
Mon 20:45 · Ligue 2
2.34
+1%
Montpellier 1X2
xG 1.7–1.1 · Model 43%
L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
PaderbornVfB Stuttgart
Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal
4.42
+1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.5 · Model 23%
L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
Dinamo ZagrebRijeka
Tue 18:00 · 1. HNL
4.66
0%
Rijeka 1X2
xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 22%
L560%6/10L1035%7/20L1527%8/30
SC FreiburgVfL Wolfsburg
Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal
5.02
0%
Draw 1X2
xG 2.1–1.4 · Model 20%
L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
ShinnikSpartak Kostroma
Mon 17:30 · FNL
2.62
0%
Shinnik 1X2
xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 38%
L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1537%11/30
CoritibaGrêmio
Mon 23:30 · Serie A
3.24
0%
Grêmio 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 31%
L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
BragantinoChapecoense
Wed 23:30 · Serie A
5.00
0%
Draw 1X2
xG 2.0–1.0 · Model 20%
L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1517%5/30
Argentinos JuniorsIndependiente Rivadavia
Tue 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
3.62
-1%
Independiente Rivadavia 1X2
xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 27%
L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
RizesporTrabzonspor
Mon 17:00 · Super Lig
3.44
-1%
Rizespor 1X2
xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 29%
L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
GenoaJuventus
Wed 20:45 · Serie A
3.81
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 26%
L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1530%9/30
FC KölnFC Union Berlin
Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal
3.88
-1%
FC Union Berlin 1X2
xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 26%
L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1533%10/30
SantosPalmeiras
Wed 23:30 · Serie A
3.00
-1%
Santos 1X2
xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 33%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1523%7/30
Cherno MoreSeptemvri Sofia
Tue 16:00 · First League
3.87
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 26%
L510%1/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
VfL Bochum 1848FSV Mainz 05
Tue 18:00 · DFB Pokal
4.26
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.6 · Model 23%
L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
Dynamo DresdenSchalke 04
Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal
3.93
-1%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 25%
L530%3/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 26 Oct, 09:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

League	Matches	Home	Draw	Away	Goals
1. HNL	137	46%	25.5%	28.5%	2.7
1. Lig	305	45.9%	22%	32.1%	2.91
2. Bundesliga	237	47.7%	27.4%	24.9%	2.91
A-League Men	157	35.7%	28%	36.3%	2.82
A-League Women	122	43.4%	19.7%	36.9%	2.77
Admiral Bundesliga	151	47%	24.5%	28.5%	2.81
AFC Champions League Elite	95	43.2%	24.2%	32.6%	2.52
AFC Champions League Two	87	50.6%	18.4%	31%	2.92
Africa Cup of Nations	52	46.2%	25%	28.8%	2.33
Allsvenskan	126	36.5%	27%	36.5%	3.06
Botola Pro	214	39.3%	33.6%	27.1%	2.2
Brasileiro Women	107	42.1%	26.2%	31.8%	2.65
Bundesliga	290	45.9%	25.2%	29%	3.32
CAF Champions League	88	50%	30.7%	19.3%	1.95
Carabao Cup	40	45%	7.5%	47.5%	3.63
Challenger Pro League	198	43.4%	23.7%	32.8%	2.92
Champions League	197	51.8%	15.7%	32.5%	3.57
Championship	451	41.9%	25.5%	32.6%	2.66
Chance Liga	191	46.1%	18.8%	35.1%	2.68
Copa Del Rey	119	26.1%	10.9%	63%	3.4
Copa do Brasil	132	43.2%	30.3%	26.5%	2.16
Copa Libertadores	132	47.7%	22.7%	29.5%	2.16
Copa Sudamericana	119	42.9%	33.6%	23.5%	2.22
Coppa Italia	36	61.1%	19.4%	19.4%	2.78
Coupe de France	203	23.2%	26.6%	50.2%	3.14
DFB Pokal	49	22.4%	8.2%	69.4%	3.8
Eerste Divisie	273	41%	21.6%	37.4%	3.16
Ekstraklasa	217	42.9%	27.6%	29.5%	2.66
Eliteserien	156	52.6%	17.9%	29.5%	3.19
Enterprise National League	380	44.7%	21.1%	34.2%	2.99
Eredivisie	248	42.3%	28.6%	29%	3.2
Europa Conference League	163	49.1%	21.5%	29.4%	2.64
Europa League	182	49.5%	18.1%	32.4%	2.86
FA Cup	166	48.2%	17.5%	34.3%	3.36
First Division	120	37.5%	26.7%	35.8%	2.81
First League	199	43.2%	24.6%	32.2%	2.32
FNL	181	42%	29.3%	28.7%	2.43
Indian Super League	103	39.8%	31.1%	29.1%	2.48
J1 League	60	43.3%	21.7%	35%	2.7
K League 1	131	32.8%	30.5%	36.6%	2.31
KNVB Beker	57	42.1%	8.8%	49.1%	4.05
La Liga	374	48.7%	24.6%	26.7%	2.81
La Liga 2	374	46.5%	23%	30.5%	2.67
League One	433	46.2%	25.6%	28.2%	2.7
League Two	426	40.8%	26.3%	32.9%	2.55
Liga MX	232	45.3%	26.3%	28.4%	2.83
Liga Portugal	247	42.5%	26.7%	30.8%	2.74
Liga Profesional de Fútbol	347	39.5%	30.5%	30%	2.05
Ligat ha'Al	200	40%	26%	34%	2.88
Ligue 1	292	44.2%	24.7%	31.2%	2.83
Ligue 1	173	32.4%	28.9%	38.7%	2.06
Ligue 2	226	39.4%	30.1%	30.5%	2.61
Major League Soccer	291	47.1%	24.4%	28.5%	3.32
Persian Gulf Pro League	131	42.7%	32.8%	24.4%	1.89
Premier League	171	34.5%	34.5%	31%	2.06
Premier League	156	46.2%	26.3%	27.6%	2.49
Premier League	232	35.3%	37.1%	27.6%	2.2
Premier League	365	40.5%	28.8%	30.7%	2.79
Premier League	184	41.8%	24.5%	33.7%	2.64
Premiership	188	48.4%	22.9%	28.7%	2.87
Primera Division	191	40.3%	25.1%	34.6%	2.41
Pro League	237	40.5%	23.2%	36.3%	2.75
Pro League	276	44.6%	23.6%	31.9%	3.01
Russian Cup	48	37.5%	27.1%	35.4%	2.6
Serie A	285	49.5%	26.7%	23.9%	2.71
Serie A	375	40.8%	22.7%	36.5%	2.56
Serie B	322	45.7%	29.2%	25.2%	2.57
Serie B	223	41.7%	31.8%	26.5%	2.25
Stars League	105	35.2%	20%	44.8%	3.36
Super League	171	44.4%	25.1%	30.4%	3.11
Super League	170	41.8%	25.9%	32.4%	3.28
Super League	198	43.4%	27.8%	28.8%	2.54
Super Lig	246	44.3%	28%	27.6%	2.72
Superliga	225	48.4%	23.1%	28.4%	2.52
Superliga	132	37.9%	28%	34.1%	3.04
Taça De Portugal	60	48.3%	11.7%	40%	2.52
UAE Pro League	147	38.1%	28.6%	33.3%	2.98
UEFA Women's Champions League	57	47.4%	21.1%	31.6%	3.39
UEFA Youth League	174	49.4%	16.7%	33.9%	3.75
V-League	144	43.1%	25.7%	31.3%	2.62
Veikkausliiga	109	47.7%	31.2%	21.1%	2.73
WC Qualification Europe	60	46.7%	20%	33.3%	3.45
Women's Super League	104	46.2%	18.3%	35.6%	3.1
World Cup	94	47.9%	24.5%	27.7%	2.93
World Cup Women Qualification Europe	101	46.5%	13.9%	39.6%	3.45
Youth League	148	45.9%	16.9%	37.2%	3.78

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the value it finds is a tilt on the price rather than a guess against it.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing value: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.