Match Result Screener

Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and whether the price is value.

Match Result Screener

Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the value against Pinnacle where the match is priced.

Smart views

324 matches · best line per match

Upcoming matches with recent results hit rates and model value
	Line	Odds						L15
AC MilanInter Sat 20:45 · Serie A	AC Milan 1X2	3.73 27%	30%3.35	+11%	1.7–1.6	40%4/10	30%6/20	30%9/30
FC AugsburgSC Freiburg Sat 15:30 · Bundesliga	FC Augsburg 1X2	3.11 32%	35%2.82	+10%	2.0–1.7	40%4/10	35%7/20	37%11/30
BolognaMonza Sat 15:00 · Serie A	Monza 1X2	4.93 20%	22%4.47	+10%	1.8–1.4	30%3/10	35%7/20	40%12/30
JEF UnitedAvispa Fukuoka Sun 06:00 · J1 League	JEF United 1X2	3.16 32%	35%2.89	+9%	1.5–1.1	44%4/9	29%4/14	33%5/15
GuadalajaraAtlante Sun 02:07 · Liga MX	Atlante 1X2	6.13 16%	18%5.62	+9%	1.6–1.0	22%2/9	21%3/14	21%4/19
Vasco da GamaFlamengo Fri 00:00 · Serie A	Vasco da Gama 1X2	4.08 25%	27%3.76	+9%	1.3–1.4	20%2/10	20%4/20	27%8/30
Coventry CitySunderland Sat 16:00 · Premier League	Coventry City 1X2	3.16 32%	34%2.92	+8%	1.6–1.3	30%3/10	35%7/20	37%11/30
ElversbergFSV Mainz 05 Fri 20:30 · Bundesliga	Elversberg 1X2	3.17 32%	34%2.94	+8%	1.9–1.7	40%4/10	45%9/20	47%14/30
Stockport CountyAFC Wimbledon Sat 16:00 · League One	Draw 1X2	6.12 16%	18%5.68	+8%	2.0–0.9	20%2/10	10%2/20	17%5/30
Volga UlyanovskTekstilshchik Sat 14:00 · FNL	Tekstilshchik 1X2	5.35 19%	20%4.98	+8%	1.5–1.1	20%2/10	20%3/15	25%5/20
MillwallDerby County Sat 16:00 · Championship	Derby County 1X2	4.96 20%	22%4.62	+7%	1.4–1.1	30%3/10	35%7/20	37%11/30
LASK LinzWSG Tirol Sat 19:30 · Admiral Bundesliga	Draw 1X2	5.72 17%	19%5.33	+7%	1.9–1.4	20%2/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
New York CityCF Montréal Sat 19:00 · Major League Soccer	CF Montréal 1X2	5.59 18%	19%5.21	+7%	1.8–1.2	20%2/10	25%5/20	33%10/30
Celta de Vigo IICórdoba Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2	Celta de Vigo II 1X2	3.27 31%	33%3.05	+7%	1.6–1.4	38%3/8	38%5/13	33%6/18
Lincoln CityBirmingham City Sat 13:30 · Championship	Lincoln City 1X2	3.36 30%	32%3.14	+7%	1.6–1.5	30%3/10	35%7/20	47%14/30
SeoulIncheon United Sun 08:30 · K League 1	Incheon United 1X2	4.31 23%	25%4.02	+7%	1.5–1.3	40%4/10	35%7/20	40%12/30
FC MidtjyllandOdense BK Thu 19:30	Odense BK 1X2	4.69 21%	23%4.38	+7%	1.6–1.2	20%2/10	25%5/20	27%8/30
Karlsruher SCHeidenheim Sat 20:30 · 2. Bundesliga	Karlsruher SC 1X2	3.23 31%	33%3.02	+7%	1.7–1.5	30%3/10	30%6/20	37%11/30
CincinnatiPhiladelphia Union Sat 19:00 · Major League Soccer	Cincinnati 1X2	2.64 38%	40%2.48	+7%	2.1–1.5	30%3/10	40%8/20	40%12/30
Bolton WanderersBristol City Sat 16:00 · Championship	Bolton Wanderers 1X2	2.90 34%	37%2.73	+6%	1.6–1.2	40%4/10	40%8/20	43%13/30
SC CambuurGo Ahead Eagles Sat 21:00 · Eredivisie	SC Cambuur 1X2	2.87 35%	37%2.70	+6%	1.9–1.6	40%4/10	35%7/20	40%12/30
GuingampSaint-Étienne Sat 20:00 · Ligue 2	Guingamp 1X2	3.93 25%	27%3.70	+6%	1.2–1.2	20%2/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
Racing ClubAldosivi Sat 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Aldosivi 1X2	5.23 19%	20%4.92	+6%	1.4–1.0	30%3/10	25%5/20	23%7/30
Newport CountyChesterfield Fri 20:45 · League Two	Newport County 1X2	3.69 27%	29%3.48	+6%	1.3–1.3	30%3/10	30%6/20	30%9/30
Salford CityExeter City Sat 16:00 · League Two	Exeter City 1X2	5.06 20%	21%4.77	+6%	1.6–1.1	40%4/10	25%5/20	23%7/30
KaiserslauternHertha BSC Sat 13:00 · 2. Bundesliga	Kaiserslautern 1X2	3.00 33%	35%2.83	+6%	1.4–1.0	50%5/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
EstudiantesInstituto Sun 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Instituto 1X2	3.93 25%	27%3.71	+6%	1.1–1.1	50%5/10	50%10/20	40%12/30
Al NassrAl Kholood Thu 19:00 · Pro League	Al Kholood 1X2	9.91 10%	11%9.35	+6%	2.3–0.9	0%0/10	20%4/20	13%4/30
Al IttihadEl Geish Fri 19:00 · Premier League	Al Ittihad 1X2	2.71 37%	39%2.56	+6%	1.5–1.0	60%6/10	45%9/20	40%12/30
MotherwellSt. Mirren Sat 16:00 · Premiership	St. Mirren 1X2	3.99 25%	26%3.78	+6%	1.5–1.4	60%6/10	50%10/20	50%15/30
BurnleyPortsmouth Sat 16:00 · Championship	Portsmouth 1X2	3.55 28%	30%3.36	+6%	1.5–1.5	50%5/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
FyldeAFC Hornchurch Fri 20:45 · Enterprise National League	AFC Hornchurch 1X2	4.28 23%	25%4.06	+6%	1.7–1.4	44%4/9	40%4/10	40%4/10
KuPSGnistan Thu 18:00 · Veikkausliiga	Draw 1X2	4.89 20%	22%4.64	+6%	1.7–1.3	20%2/10	25%5/20	30%9/30
VillarrealEspanyol Fri 21:00 · La Liga	Draw 1X2	5.20 19%	20%4.93	+6%	2.0–1.3	20%2/10	15%3/20	20%6/30
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners Sun 05:00 · A-League Men	Draw 1X2	5.09 20%	21%4.83	+5%	1.8–1.2	30%3/10	35%7/20	40%12/30
LevanteAtlético Madrid Sat 14:00 · La Liga	Draw 1X2	4.77 21%	22%4.53	+5%	1.5–1.5	30%3/10	25%5/20	20%6/30
MonterreyTijuana Sun 02:05 · Liga MX	Draw 1X2	4.62 22%	23%4.39	+5%	1.4–1.3	50%5/10	40%8/20	33%10/30
Grenoble Foot 38Dijon Fri 20:00 · Ligue 2	Grenoble Foot 38 1X2	3.12 32%	34%2.96	+5%	1.6–1.4	50%4/8	31%4/13	22%4/18
Mito HollyhockSanfrecce Hiroshima Sat 06:00 · J1 League	Draw 1X2	4.93 20%	21%4.69	+5%	1.2–1.7	0%0/9	7%1/14	11%2/19
Wisła PłockPiast Gliwice Sat 12:15 · Ekstraklasa	Piast Gliwice 1X2	3.43 29%	31%3.26	+5%	1.3–1.4	50%5/10	45%9/20	50%15/30
Werder BremenTSG Hoffenheim Sat 15:30 · Bundesliga	Werder Bremen 1X2	2.90 34%	36%2.76	+5%	1.8–1.6	30%3/10	45%9/20	40%12/30
KifisiaOlympiacos F.C. Sat 18:00 · Super League	Draw 1X2	4.33 23%	24%4.13	+5%	1.2–1.3	10%1/10	25%5/20	33%10/30
SampdoriaVirtus Entella Sat 19:30 · Serie B	Virtus Entella 1X2	3.60 28%	29%3.44	+5%	1.2–1.2	60%6/10	40%8/20	43%13/30
Al SailiyaLusail City Sat 15:15 · Stars League	Al Sailiya 1X2	3.52 28%	30%3.36	+5%	1.5–1.5	38%3/8	31%4/13	33%6/18
Forest Green RoversHarrogate Town Sat 13:30 · Enterprise National League	Forest Green Rovers 1X2	2.52 40%	41%2.41	+5%	1.8–1.2	30%3/10	45%9/20	50%15/30
Boreham WoodHartlepool United Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	Draw 1X2	5.80 17%	18%5.56	+4%	2.1–1.1	10%1/10	15%3/20	13%4/30
Deportivo RiestraTalleres Córdoba Sat 21:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	Talleres Córdoba 1X2	3.66 27%	28%3.51	+4%	1.1–1.1	30%3/10	40%8/20	43%13/30
Ceramica CleopatraZED FC Sat 19:00 · Premier League	ZED FC 1X2	3.91 26%	27%3.75	+4%	1.5–1.3	40%4/10	35%7/20	37%11/30
JuárezQuerétaro Sat 02:00 · Liga MX	Juárez 1X2	2.98 34%	35%2.86	+4%	1.6–1.4	40%4/10	20%4/20	30%9/30
HammarbySirius Thu 18:30 · Allsvenskan	Draw 1X2	4.81 21%	22%4.62	+4%	1.7–1.4	20%2/10	15%3/20	17%5/30

AC MilanInter
Sat 20:45 · Serie A
3.73
+11%
AC Milan 1X2
xG 1.7–1.6 · Model 30%
L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
FC AugsburgSC Freiburg
Sat 15:30 · Bundesliga
3.11
+10%
FC Augsburg 1X2
xG 2.0–1.7 · Model 35%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
BolognaMonza
Sat 15:00 · Serie A
4.93
+10%
Monza 1X2
xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 22%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1540%12/30
JEF UnitedAvispa Fukuoka
Sun 06:00 · J1 League
3.16
+9%
JEF United 1X2
xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 35%
L544%4/9L1029%4/14L1533%5/15
GuadalajaraAtlante
Sun 02:07 · Liga MX
6.13
+9%
Atlante 1X2
xG 1.6–1.0 · Model 18%
L522%2/9L1021%3/14L1521%4/19
Vasco da GamaFlamengo
Fri 00:00 · Serie A
4.08
+9%
Vasco da Gama 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 27%
L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
Coventry CitySunderland
Sat 16:00 · Premier League
3.16
+8%
Coventry City 1X2
xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 34%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
ElversbergFSV Mainz 05
Fri 20:30 · Bundesliga
3.17
+8%
Elversberg 1X2
xG 1.9–1.7 · Model 34%
L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1547%14/30
Stockport CountyAFC Wimbledon
Sat 16:00 · League One
6.12
+8%
Draw 1X2
xG 2.0–0.9 · Model 18%
L520%2/10L1010%2/20L1517%5/30
Volga UlyanovskTekstilshchik
Sat 14:00 · FNL
5.35
+8%
Tekstilshchik 1X2
xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 20%
L520%2/10L1020%3/15L1525%5/20
MillwallDerby County
Sat 16:00 · Championship
4.96
+7%
Derby County 1X2
xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 22%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
LASK LinzWSG Tirol
Sat 19:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
5.72
+7%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 19%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
New York CityCF Montréal
Sat 19:00 · Major League Soccer
5.59
+7%
CF Montréal 1X2
xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 19%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1533%10/30
Celta de Vigo IICórdoba
Sat 18:30 · La Liga 2
3.27
+7%
Celta de Vigo II 1X2
xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 33%
L538%3/8L1038%5/13L1533%6/18
Lincoln CityBirmingham City
Sat 13:30 · Championship
3.36
+7%
Lincoln City 1X2
xG 1.6–1.5 · Model 32%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1547%14/30
SeoulIncheon United
Sun 08:30 · K League 1
4.31
+7%
Incheon United 1X2
xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 25%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1540%12/30
FC MidtjyllandOdense BK
Thu 19:30
4.69
+7%
Odense BK 1X2
xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 23%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Karlsruher SCHeidenheim
Sat 20:30 · 2. Bundesliga
3.23
+7%
Karlsruher SC 1X2
xG 1.7–1.5 · Model 33%
L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
CincinnatiPhiladelphia Union
Sat 19:00 · Major League Soccer
2.64
+7%
Cincinnati 1X2
xG 2.1–1.5 · Model 40%
L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
Bolton WanderersBristol City
Sat 16:00 · Championship
2.90
+6%
Bolton Wanderers 1X2
xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 37%
L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
SC CambuurGo Ahead Eagles
Sat 21:00 · Eredivisie
2.87
+6%
SC Cambuur 1X2
xG 1.9–1.6 · Model 37%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1540%12/30
GuingampSaint-Étienne
Sat 20:00 · Ligue 2
3.93
+6%
Guingamp 1X2
xG 1.2–1.2 · Model 27%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
Racing ClubAldosivi
Sat 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
5.23
+6%
Aldosivi 1X2
xG 1.4–1.0 · Model 20%
L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Newport CountyChesterfield
Fri 20:45 · League Two
3.69
+6%
Newport County 1X2
xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 29%
L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Salford CityExeter City
Sat 16:00 · League Two
5.06
+6%
Exeter City 1X2
xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 21%
L540%4/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
KaiserslauternHertha BSC
Sat 13:00 · 2. Bundesliga
3.00
+6%
Kaiserslautern 1X2
xG 1.4–1.0 · Model 35%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
EstudiantesInstituto
Sun 01:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
3.93
+6%
Instituto 1X2
xG 1.1–1.1 · Model 27%
L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Al NassrAl Kholood
Thu 19:00 · Pro League
9.91
+6%
Al Kholood 1X2
xG 2.3–0.9 · Model 11%
L50%0/10L1020%4/20L1513%4/30
Al IttihadEl Geish
Fri 19:00 · Premier League
2.71
+6%
Al Ittihad 1X2
xG 1.5–1.0 · Model 39%
L560%6/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
MotherwellSt. Mirren
Sat 16:00 · Premiership
3.99
+6%
St. Mirren 1X2
xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 26%
L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
BurnleyPortsmouth
Sat 16:00 · Championship
3.55
+6%
Portsmouth 1X2
xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 30%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
FyldeAFC Hornchurch
Fri 20:45 · Enterprise National League
4.28
+6%
AFC Hornchurch 1X2
xG 1.7–1.4 · Model 25%
L544%4/9L1040%4/10L1540%4/10
KuPSGnistan
Thu 18:00 · Veikkausliiga
4.89
+6%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.7–1.3 · Model 22%
L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
VillarrealEspanyol
Fri 21:00 · La Liga
5.20
+6%
Draw 1X2
xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 20%
L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
Melbourne VictoryCentral Coast Mariners
Sun 05:00 · A-League Men
5.09
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 21%
L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1540%12/30
LevanteAtlético Madrid
Sat 14:00 · La Liga
4.77
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 22%
L530%3/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
MonterreyTijuana
Sun 02:05 · Liga MX
4.62
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 23%
L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
Grenoble Foot 38Dijon
Fri 20:00 · Ligue 2
3.12
+5%
Grenoble Foot 38 1X2
xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 34%
L550%4/8L1031%4/13L1522%4/18
Mito HollyhockSanfrecce Hiroshima
Sat 06:00 · J1 League
4.93
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.2–1.7 · Model 21%
L50%0/9L107%1/14L1511%2/19
Wisła PłockPiast Gliwice
Sat 12:15 · Ekstraklasa
3.43
+5%
Piast Gliwice 1X2
xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 31%
L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1550%15/30
Werder BremenTSG Hoffenheim
Sat 15:30 · Bundesliga
2.90
+5%
Werder Bremen 1X2
xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 36%
L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
KifisiaOlympiacos F.C.
Sat 18:00 · Super League
4.33
+5%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.2–1.3 · Model 24%
L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1533%10/30
SampdoriaVirtus Entella
Sat 19:30 · Serie B
3.60
+5%
Virtus Entella 1X2
xG 1.2–1.2 · Model 29%
L560%6/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Al SailiyaLusail City
Sat 15:15 · Stars League
3.52
+5%
Al Sailiya 1X2
xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 30%
L538%3/8L1031%4/13L1533%6/18
Forest Green RoversHarrogate Town
Sat 13:30 · Enterprise National League
2.52
+5%
Forest Green Rovers 1X2
xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 41%
L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1550%15/30
Boreham WoodHartlepool United
Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National League
5.80
+4%
Draw 1X2
xG 2.1–1.1 · Model 18%
L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1513%4/30
Deportivo RiestraTalleres Córdoba
Sat 21:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
3.66
+4%
Talleres Córdoba 1X2
xG 1.1–1.1 · Model 28%
L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Ceramica CleopatraZED FC
Sat 19:00 · Premier League
3.91
+4%
ZED FC 1X2
xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 27%
L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
JuárezQuerétaro
Sat 02:00 · Liga MX
2.98
+4%
Juárez 1X2
xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 35%
L540%4/10L1020%4/20L1530%9/30
HammarbySirius
Thu 18:30 · Allsvenskan
4.81
+4%
Draw 1X2
xG 1.7–1.4 · Model 22%
L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1517%5/30

Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 29 Oct, 09:17.

Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)

League	Matches	Home	Draw	Away	Goals
1. HNL	140	44.3%	26.4%	29.3%	2.67
1. Lig	311	46%	20.9%	33.1%	2.97
2. Bundesliga	243	48.1%	27.6%	24.3%	2.9
A-League Men	162	36.4%	28.4%	35.2%	2.83
A-League Women	127	43.3%	20.5%	36.2%	2.8
Admiral Bundesliga	154	48.1%	25.3%	26.6%	2.82
AFC Champions League Elite	110	44.5%	24.5%	30.9%	2.56
AFC Champions League Two	97	47.4%	19.6%	33%	2.89
Africa Cup of Nations	52	46.2%	25%	28.8%	2.33
Allsvenskan	133	33.8%	29.3%	36.8%	3
Botola Pro	217	38.2%	33.2%	28.6%	2.2
Brasileiro Women	107	42.1%	26.2%	31.8%	2.65
Bundesliga	297	45.5%	25.3%	29.3%	3.31
CAF Champions League	96	56.3%	25%	18.8%	2.01
Carabao Cup	44	47.7%	11.4%	40.9%	3.5
Challenger Pro League	201	43.8%	23.9%	32.3%	2.92
Champions League	197	51.8%	15.7%	32.5%	3.57
Championship	463	42.1%	25.5%	32.4%	2.67
Chance Liga	195	44.6%	20%	35.4%	2.7
Copa Del Rey	119	26.1%	12.6%	61.3%	3.3
Copa do Brasil	132	43.2%	30.3%	26.5%	2.16
Copa Libertadores	132	47.7%	22.7%	29.5%	2.16
Copa Sudamericana	118	42.4%	33.9%	23.7%	2.2
Coppa Italia	36	61.1%	19.4%	19.4%	2.78
Coupe de France	203	23.2%	26.6%	50.2%	3.14
DFB Pokal	57	29.8%	5.3%	64.9%	3.89
Eerste Divisie	282	40.4%	22%	37.6%	3.21
Ekstraklasa	222	43.7%	27%	29.3%	2.69
Eliteserien	158	53.8%	17.7%	28.5%	3.18
Enterprise National League	402	44.8%	20.6%	34.6%	3.02
Eredivisie	253	41.5%	29.2%	29.2%	3.19
Europa Conference League	163	49.1%	21.5%	29.4%	2.64
Europa League	182	49.5%	18.1%	32.4%	2.86
FA Cup	166	48.2%	17.5%	34.3%	3.36
First Division	126	38.1%	27.8%	34.1%	2.79
First League	204	43.1%	25.5%	31.4%	2.25
FNL	189	42.3%	28.6%	29.1%	2.47
Indian Super League	109	38.5%	32.1%	29.4%	2.47
J1 League	70	44.3%	24.3%	31.4%	2.79
K League 1	137	32.1%	31.4%	36.5%	2.34
KNVB Beker	65	41.5%	9.2%	49.2%	4.11
La Liga	379	48.8%	24.5%	26.6%	2.8
La Liga 2	381	46.7%	23.1%	30.2%	2.69
League One	447	46.5%	25.7%	27.7%	2.71
League Two	438	41.1%	26.3%	32.6%	2.58
Liga MX	239	44.4%	26.8%	28.9%	2.81
Liga Portugal	251	41.8%	25.9%	32.3%	2.74
Liga Profesional de Fútbol	361	40.2%	29.9%	29.9%	2.05
Ligat ha'Al	205	38.5%	25.9%	35.6%	2.91
Ligue 1	296	43.9%	25.7%	30.4%	2.81
Ligue 1	178	32.6%	28.7%	38.8%	2.07
Ligue 2	226	38.9%	29.6%	31.4%	2.57
Major League Soccer	314	46.5%	24.5%	29%	3.34
Persian Gulf Pro League	137	41.6%	34.3%	24.1%	1.88
Premier League	229	35.8%	37.6%	26.6%	2.21
Premier League	171	34.5%	34.5%	31%	2.06
Premier League	160	46.3%	25.6%	28.1%	2.46
Premier League	370	40%	29.2%	30.8%	2.77
Premier League	189	40.7%	25.4%	33.9%	2.57
Premiership	197	47.7%	23.9%	28.4%	2.88
Primera Division	195	40.5%	25.1%	34.4%	2.43
Pro League	284	44.7%	22.9%	32.4%	3.01
Pro League	241	41.9%	22.8%	35.3%	2.83
Russian Cup	52	42.3%	25%	32.7%	2.67
Serie A	296	50.7%	26.4%	23%	2.71
Serie A	386	40.9%	22%	37%	2.62
Serie B	334	44.6%	28.7%	26.6%	2.57
Serie B	229	41.9%	31%	27.1%	2.26
Stars League	106	35.8%	19.8%	44.3%	3.47
Super League	171	41.5%	26.3%	32.2%	3.21
Super League	176	44.3%	23.9%	31.8%	3.13
Super League	201	43.3%	27.4%	29.4%	2.57
Super Lig	249	45%	26.9%	28.1%	2.72
Superliga	133	39.8%	27.8%	32.3%	3.09
Superliga	229	47.6%	22.7%	29.7%	2.56
Taça De Portugal	60	48.3%	11.7%	40%	2.52
UAE Pro League	147	38.1%	28.6%	33.3%	2.98
UEFA Women's Champions League	62	50%	21%	29%	3.45
UEFA Youth League	194	49.5%	17%	33.5%	3.74
V-League	146	42.5%	25.3%	32.2%	2.64
Veikkausliiga	111	46.8%	31.5%	21.6%	2.77
WC Qualification Europe	60	46.7%	20%	33.3%	3.45
Women's Super League	111	45%	18.9%	36%	3.1
World Cup	94	47.9%	24.5%	27.7%	2.93
World Cup Women Qualification Europe	101	46.5%	13.9%	39.6%	3.45
Youth League	156	46.2%	17.3%	36.5%	3.79

How the Match Result Screener Works

Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the value it finds is a tilt on the price rather than a guess against it.

Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing value: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.

Using It With Other Stats

Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.