Match Result Screener
Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and whether the price is value.
Match Result Screener
Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the value against Pinnacle where the match is priced.
Smart views
297 matches · best line per match
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eintracht Frankfurt 1X2 | 5.87 17% | 19%5.33 | +10% | 2.0–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 6.10 16% | 18%5.56 | +10% | 1.8–1.9 | 40%4/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Troyes 1X2 | 5.15 19% | 21%4.70 | +10% | 1.8–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Ceuta 1X2 | 4.14 24% | 26%3.79 | +9% | 1.4–1.3 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 50%15/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.25 19% | 21%4.82 | +9% | 1.5–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 30%6/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Crystal Palace 1X2 | 3.07 33% | 35%2.82 | +9% | 1.8–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Standard Liège 1X2 | 4.72 21% | 23%4.34 | +9% | 1.4–1.1 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Grasshopper 1X2 | 4.32 23% | 25%3.98 | +9% | 1.6–1.4 | 70%7/10 | 50%10/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Pachuca 1X2 | 5.08 20% | 21%4.70 | +8% | 1.9–1.4 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Le Havre 1X2 | 4.98 20% | 22%4.61 | +8% | 1.6–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Coventry City 1X2 | 3.20 31% | 34%2.97 | +8% | 1.5–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Southampton 1X2 | 4.41 23% | 24%4.09 | +8% | 1.5–1.3 | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 50%15/30 |   | |
Baltika Kaliningrad 1X2 | 4.86 21% | 22%4.52 | +8% | 1.4–1.1 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.75 17% | 19%5.37 | +7% | 2.1–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 15%3/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2 | 3.24 31% | 33%3.03 | +7% | 1.6–1.7 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Arezzo 1X2 | 3.05 33% | 35%2.85 | +7% | 1.6–1.2 | 33%2/6 | 33%2/6 | 33%2/6 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.14 19% | 21%4.81 | +7% | 1.4–1.6 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Pardubice 1X2 | 5.12 20% | 21%4.80 | +7% | 1.6–1.2 | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
SK Beveren 1X2 | 3.35 30% | 32%3.14 | +7% | 1.5–1.6 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   | |
Valencia 1X2 | 3.30 30% | 32%3.10 | +7% | 1.6–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.70 18% | 19%5.35 | +7% | 2.0–1.2 | 0%0/10 | 5%1/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Sunderland 1X2 | 3.23 31% | 33%3.04 | +6% | 1.4–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Celta de Vigo 1X2 | 3.01 33% | 35%2.83 | +6% | 1.6–1.3 | 40%4/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.05 20% | 21%4.75 | +6% | 1.5–1.5 | 40%4/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.15 19% | 21%4.86 | +6% | 1.8–1.2 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Otelul 1X2 | 4.19 24% | 25%3.96 | +6% | 1.5–1.3 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
SJ Earthquakes 1X2 | 4.14 24% | 26%3.91 | +6% | 1.8–1.5 | 20%2/10 | 35%7/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Odense BK 1X2 | 6.47 15% | 16%6.11 | +6% | 2.0–1.1 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.58 22% | 23%4.33 | +6% | 1.2–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.81 21% | 22%4.55 | +6% | 1.6–1.1 | 10%1/10 | 20%4/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.39 19% | 20%5.10 | +6% | 2.0–1.3 | 0%0/10 | 20%4/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.35 19% | 20%5.06 | +6% | 1.8–1.4 | 22%2/9 | 14%2/14 | 21%4/19 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 6.01 17% | 18%5.69 | +6% | 2.3–1.7 | 0%0/10 | 0%0/20 | 0%0/30 |   | |
Willem II 1X2 | 2.54 39% | 42%2.41 | +6% | 1.9–1.3 | 50%5/10 | 55%11/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Arouca 1X2 | 3.67 27% | 29%3.48 | +6% | 1.5–1.4 | 70%7/10 | 55%11/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
Cardiff City 1X2 | 2.78 36% | 38%2.63 | +6% | 1.8–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.91 20% | 22%4.65 | +6% | 1.3–1.6 | 10%1/10 | 20%4/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Fredrikstad 1X2 | 6.16 16% | 17%5.84 | +6% | 2.0–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.11 20% | 21%4.85 | +5% | 1.7–1.5 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Bromley 1X2 | 3.00 33% | 35%2.85 | +5% | 1.6–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
AFC Bournemouth 1X2 | 3.39 29% | 31%3.23 | +5% | 1.5–1.5 | 50%5/10 | 45%9/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Real Oviedo 1X2 | 5.34 19% | 20%5.08 | +5% | 1.8–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Jong Gent 1X2 | 5.33 19% | 20%5.08 | +5% | 1.9–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 30%6/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Levante 1X2 | 4.84 21% | 22%4.61 | +5% | 2.1–1.4 | 10%1/10 | 20%4/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.92 20% | 21%4.69 | +5% | 1.4–1.6 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
AFC Wimbledon 1X2 | 4.25 24% | 25%4.06 | +5% | 1.4–1.7 | 20%2/10 | 30%6/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Forest Green Rovers 1X2 | 3.10 32% | 34%2.96 | +5% | 1.3–1.6 | 40%4/10 | 50%10/20 | 53%16/30 |   | |
Aldosivi 1X2 | 4.02 25% | 26%3.84 | +5% | 1.1–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 10%2/20 | 17%5/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.77 21% | 22%4.56 | +5% | 1.7–1.0 | 20%2/10 | 10%2/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Casa Pia 1X2 | 4.56 22% | 23%4.37 | +4% | 1.4–1.1 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 37%11/30 |   |
Borussia Dortmund
Eintracht FrankfurtToday 16:30 · Bundesliga5.87+10%Eintracht Frankfurt 1X2xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 19%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
SC Freiburg
FC Bayern MünchenTomorrow 16:30 · Bundesliga6.10+10%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.9 · Model 18%L540%4/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Toulouse
TroyesTomorrow 16:15 · Ligue 15.15+10%Troyes 1X2xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1540%12/30
Cádiz
CeutaTomorrow 15:15 · La Liga 24.14+9%Ceuta 1X2xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 26%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Beşiktaş
İstanbul BaşakşehirMon 16:00 · Super Lig5.25+9%Draw 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 21%L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1523%7/30
Crystal Palace
Newcastle UnitedTomorrow 14:00 · Premier League3.07+9%Crystal Palace 1X2xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 35%L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Genk
Standard LiègeTomorrow 12:30 · Pro League4.72+9%Standard Liège 1X2xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 23%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Basel
GrasshopperTomorrow 15:30 · Super League4.32+9%Grasshopper 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 25%L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
América
PachucaMon 01:05 · Liga MX5.08+8%Pachuca 1X2xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1537%11/30
Olympique Marseille
Le HavreTomorrow 16:15 · Ligue 14.98+8%Le Havre 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 22%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
Coventry City
FulhamToday 14:00 · Premier League3.20+8%Coventry City 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 34%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
West Ham United
SouthamptonToday 14:00 · Championship4.41+8%Southampton 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 24%L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1550%15/30
Krasnodar
Baltika KaliningradToday 16:30 · Premier League4.86+8%Baltika Kaliningrad 1X2xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 22%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
Inter
FiorentinaTomorrow 11:30 · Serie A5.75+7%Draw 1X2xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 19%L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1527%8/30
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove AlbionTomorrow 14:00 · Premier League3.24+7%Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2xG 1.6–1.7 · Model 33%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
Arezzo
BeneventoToday 17:30 · Serie B3.05+7%Arezzo 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 35%L533%2/6L1033%2/6L1533%2/6
Volos NFC
PanathinaikosTomorrow 16:00 · Super League5.14+7%Draw 1X2xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 21%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
Viktoria Plzeň
PardubiceTomorrow 17:00 · Chance Liga5.12+7%Pardubice 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 21%L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Westerlo
SK BeverenToday 18:45 · Pro League3.35+7%SK Beveren 1X2xG 1.5–1.6 · Model 32%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
Valencia
VillarrealToday 16:30 · La Liga3.30+7%Valencia 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 32%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Club Brugge
Sint-TruidenTomorrow 15:00 · Pro League5.70+7%Draw 1X2xG 2.0–1.2 · Model 19%L50%0/10L105%1/20L1513%4/30
Sunderland
Leeds UnitedTomorrow 16:30 · Premier League3.23+6%Sunderland 1X2xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 33%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
Celta de Vigo
Real BetisTomorrow 15:15 · La Liga3.01+6%Celta de Vigo 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 35%L540%4/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Wolverhampton Wanderers
WatfordToday 14:00 · Championship5.15+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Farul Constanța
OtelulTomorrow 14:00 · Superliga4.19+6%Otelul 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 25%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Dallas
SJ EarthquakesTomorrow 00:30 · Major League Soccer4.14+6%SJ Earthquakes 1X2xG 1.8–1.5 · Model 26%L520%2/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
FC København
Odense BKMon 18:00 · Superliga6.47+6%Odense BK 1X2xG 2.0–1.1 · Model 16%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Vejle Boldklub
Aarhus FremadToday 16:30 · First Division4.58+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.2–1.3 · Model 23%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
Palermo
CarrareseTomorrow 14:00 · Serie B4.81+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 22%L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
Paris Saint Germain
Olympique LyonnaisTomorrow 19:45 · Ligue 15.39+6%Draw 1X2xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 20%L50%0/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
Boreham Wood
FyldeToday 14:00 · Enterprise National League5.35+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 20%L522%2/9L1014%2/14L1521%4/19
FC Barcelona
Real MadridTomorrow 20:00 · La Liga6.01+6%Draw 1X2xG 2.3–1.7 · Model 18%L50%0/10L100%0/20L150%0/30
Willem II
SC CambuurToday 16:45 · Eredivisie2.54+6%Willem II 1X2xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 42%L550%5/10L1055%11/20L1543%13/30
Alverca
AroucaToday 17:00 · Liga Portugal3.67+6%Arouca 1X2xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 29%L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1547%14/30
Cardiff City
Birmingham CityToday 14:00 · Championship2.78+6%Cardiff City 1X2xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 38%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
Santa Clara
BenficaMon 18:45 · Liga Portugal4.91+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.3–1.6 · Model 22%L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
Molde
FredrikstadTomorrow 18:15 · Eliteserien6.16+6%Fredrikstad 1X2xG 2.0–1.2 · Model 17%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1530%9/30
FC Midtjylland
Lyngby BoldklubTomorrow 13:00 · Superliga5.11+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.7–1.5 · Model 21%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Bromley
Peterborough UnitedToday 14:00 · League One3.00+5%Bromley 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 35%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1540%12/30
Manchester United
AFC BournemouthTomorrow 14:00 · Premier League3.39+5%AFC Bournemouth 1X2xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 31%L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
Almería
Real OviedoToday 19:00 · La Liga 25.34+5%Real Oviedo 1X2xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 20%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
KSC Lokeren
Jong GentToday 18:00 · Challenger Pro League5.33+5%Jong Gent 1X2xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 20%L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
Real Sociedad
LevanteTomorrow 17:30 · La Liga4.84+5%Levante 1X2xG 2.1–1.4 · Model 22%L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1533%10/30
Sparta Rotterdam
AjaxTomorrow 15:45 · Eredivisie4.92+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 21%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
AFC Wimbledon
Wycombe WanderersToday 14:00 · League One4.25+5%AFC Wimbledon 1X2xG 1.4–1.7 · Model 25%L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Barrow
Forest Green RoversToday 14:00 · Enterprise National League3.10+5%Forest Green Rovers 1X2xG 1.3–1.6 · Model 34%L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1553%16/30
Aldosivi
BelgranoTomorrow 17:45 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol4.02+5%Aldosivi 1X2xG 1.1–1.3 · Model 26%L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1517%5/30
Estrela Amadora
Casa PiaToday 14:30 · Liga Portugal4.56+4%Casa Pia 1X2xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 23%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 24 Oct, 14:17.
Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)
| League | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. HNL | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| 1. Lig | 45.8% | 22.3% | 31.9% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 47.7% | 27.2% | 25.1% |
| A-League Men | 37.3% | 27.3% | 35.4% |
| A-League Women | 43.4% | 19.7% | 36.9% |
| Admiral Bundesliga | 47.4% | 24.7% | 27.9% |
| AFC Champions League Elite | 43.2% | 24.2% | 32.6% |
| AFC Champions League Two | 50.6% | 18.4% | 31% |
| Africa Cup of Nations | 46.2% | 25% | 28.8% |
| Allsvenskan | 36.7% | 26.6% | 36.7% |
| Botola Pro | 39.4% | 33.8% | 26.9% |
| Brasileiro Women | 42.1% | 26.2% | 31.8% |
| Bundesliga | 46.1% | 24.6% | 29.3% |
| CAF Champions League | 54.2% | 28.1% | 17.7% |
| Carabao Cup | 45% | 7.5% | 47.5% |
| Challenger Pro League | 44.1% | 24% | 31.9% |
| Champions League | 51.8% | 15.7% | 32.5% |
| Championship | 42.5% | 25.3% | 32.2% |
| Chance Liga | 45.4% | 19.4% | 35.2% |
| Copa Del Rey | 26.1% | 10.9% | 63% |
| Copa do Brasil | 43.2% | 30.3% | 26.5% |
| Copa Libertadores | 47.7% | 22.7% | 29.5% |
| Copa Sudamericana | 42.9% | 33.6% | 23.5% |
| Coppa Italia | 61.1% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Coupe de France | 23.2% | 26.6% | 50.2% |
| DFB Pokal | 22.4% | 8.2% | 69.4% |
| Eerste Divisie | 40.8% | 21.6% | 37.6% |
| Ekstraklasa | 43.7% | 27.5% | 28.8% |
| Eliteserien | 53.2% | 17.7% | 29.1% |
| Enterprise National League | 44.9% | 21.7% | 33.4% |
| Eredivisie | 42.3% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Europa Conference League | 49.1% | 21.5% | 29.4% |
| Europa League | 49.5% | 18.1% | 32.4% |
| FA Cup | 48.2% | 17.5% | 34.3% |
| First Division | 38.4% | 25.6% | 36% |
| First League | 43.3% | 25.1% | 31.5% |
| FNL | 42.6% | 29.3% | 28.2% |
| Indian Super League | 39.8% | 31.1% | 29.1% |
| J1 League | 45.7% | 22.9% | 31.4% |
| K League 1 | 33.6% | 29.9% | 36.5% |
| KNVB Beker | 42.1% | 8.8% | 49.1% |
| La Liga | 48.5% | 24.5% | 26.9% |
| La Liga 2 | 45.9% | 23.4% | 30.7% |
| League One | 45.8% | 25.7% | 28.4% |
| League Two | 41.1% | 26.5% | 32.4% |
| Liga MX | 45.4% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
| Liga Portugal | 42.6% | 26.3% | 31.1% |
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 39.5% | 30.4% | 30.1% |
| Ligat ha'Al | 39.5% | 26.8% | 33.7% |
| Ligue 1 | 44.3% | 24.3% | 31.4% |
| Ligue 1 | 32.4% | 28.9% | 38.7% |
| Ligue 2 | 40.2% | 29.5% | 30.3% |
| Major League Soccer | 47.3% | 24.3% | 28.4% |
| Persian Gulf Pro League | 42.4% | 32.6% | 25% |
| Premier League | 34.5% | 34.5% | 31% |
| Premier League | 46.3% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Premier League | 35% | 37.2% | 27.8% |
| Premier League | 41.1% | 28.4% | 30.5% |
| Premier League | 41.2% | 24.6% | 34.2% |
| Premiership | 48.7% | 22.5% | 28.8% |
| Primera Division | 40% | 25.1% | 34.9% |
| Pro League | 43.9% | 23.9% | 32.1% |
| Pro League | 40.7% | 23.7% | 35.7% |
| Russian Cup | 37.5% | 27.1% | 35.4% |
| Serie A | 49.8% | 26.1% | 24.1% |
| Serie A | 40.8% | 23.2% | 36.1% |
| Serie B | 45.8% | 29.1% | 25.2% |
| Serie B | 40.6% | 31.4% | 27.9% |
| Stars League | 35.2% | 19.4% | 45.4% |
| Super League | 44.3% | 25.9% | 29.9% |
| Super League | 41.6% | 26% | 32.4% |
| Super League | 42.8% | 27.9% | 29.4% |
| Super Lig | 44.6% | 28.1% | 27.3% |
| Superliga | 47.8% | 23.2% | 28.9% |
| Superliga | 38.3% | 27.8% | 33.8% |
| Taça De Portugal | 48.3% | 11.7% | 40% |
| UAE Pro League | 38.1% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| UEFA Women's Champions League | 47.4% | 21.1% | 31.6% |
| UEFA Youth League | 49.4% | 16.7% | 33.9% |
| V-League | 42.9% | 25.2% | 32% |
| Veikkausliiga | 47.3% | 30.9% | 21.8% |
| WC Qualification Europe | 46.7% | 20% | 33.3% |
| Women's Super League | 46.2% | 18.3% | 35.6% |
| World Cup | 47.9% | 24.5% | 27.7% |
| World Cup Women Qualification Europe | 46.5% | 13.9% | 39.6% |
| Youth League | 46.3% | 16.8% | 36.9% |
How the Match Result Screener Works
Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the value it finds is a tilt on the price rather than a guess against it.
Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing value: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.
Using It With Other Stats
Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.