Match Result Screener
Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and whether the price is value.
Match Result Screener
Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the value against Pinnacle where the match is priced.
Smart views
173 matches · best line per match
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sporting Delhi 1X2 | 5.43 18% | 20%5.08 | +7% | 1.5–1.1 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Al Mokawloon 1X2 | 4.47 22% | 24%4.18 | +7% | 1.2–1.0 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.55 18% | 19%5.22 | +6% | 1.8–1.6 | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Cambridge United 1X2 | 3.53 28% | 30%3.33 | +6% | 1.3–1.4 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
Sunderland 1X2 | 3.64 27% | 29%3.45 | +6% | 1.4–1.4 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Bologna 1X2 | 5.26 19% | 20%4.99 | +5% | 1.7–1.2 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Liverpool 1X2 | 2.87 35% | 37%2.73 | +5% | 1.9–1.6 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.31 19% | 20%5.05 | +5% | 1.9–1.2 | 50%5/10 | 25%5/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.50 18% | 19%5.24 | +5% | 1.9–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 15%3/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.94 20% | 21%4.71 | +5% | 1.6–1.4 | 10%1/10 | 10%2/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
National Bank of Egypt 1X2 | 2.69 37% | 39%2.57 | +5% | 1.6–1.1 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Darmstadt 98 1X2 | 5.74 17% | 18%5.49 | +5% | 2.1–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Goiás 1X2 | 3.78 26% | 28%3.62 | +4% | 1.2–1.2 | 70%7/10 | 55%11/20 | 50%15/30 |   | |
São Paulo 1X2 | 3.80 26% | 27%3.67 | +4% | 1.4–1.3 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Parma 1X2 | 2.96 34% | 35%2.90 | +2% | 1.4–1.3 | 60%6/10 | 45%9/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Hamburger SV 1X2 | 2.84 35% | 36%2.80 | +2% | 1.9–1.7 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.20 24% | 24%4.14 | +2% | 1.5–1.0 | 50%5/10 | 35%7/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Kaiserslautern 1X2 | 3.81 26% | 27%3.75 | +2% | 1.4–1.2 | 40%4/10 | 30%6/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Peterborough United 1X2 | 4.77 21% | 21%4.71 | +1% | 1.6–1.1 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.80 21% | 21%4.73 | +1% | 1.9–1.0 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 17%5/30 |   | |
Hearts 1X2 | 3.00 33% | 34%2.97 | +1% | 1.8–1.7 | 30%3/10 | 45%9/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
St. Mirren 1X2 | 3.40 29% | 30%3.37 | +1% | 1.3–1.3 | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Sassuolo 1X2 | 2.94 34% | 34%2.91 | +1% | 1.5–1.4 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Kilmarnock 1X2 | 3.60 28% | 28%3.58 | +1% | 1.8–1.6 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.42 23% | 23%4.39 | +1% | 1.6–1.5 | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Rijeka 1X2 | 4.66 21% | 22%4.65 | 0% | 1.8–1.2 | 60%6/10 | 35%7/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.02 20% | 20%5.01 | 0% | 2.1–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.00 20% | 20%5.02 | 0% | 2.0–1.0 | 10%1/10 | 15%3/20 | 17%5/30 |   | |
Independiente Rivadavia 1X2 | 3.62 28% | 27%3.64 | -1% | 1.6–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 30%6/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Santos 1X2 | 3.00 33% | 33%3.03 | -1% | 1.4–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 35%7/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Vasco da Gama 1X2 | 3.60 28% | 27%3.64 | -1% | 1.1–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.81 26% | 26%3.85 | -1% | 1.3–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
FC Union Berlin 1X2 | 3.88 26% | 25%3.92 | -1% | 1.9–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 45%9/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.87 26% | 26%3.92 | -1% | 1.3–1.2 | 10%1/10 | 35%7/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.16 24% | 24%4.21 | -1% | 1.6–1.2 | 50%5/10 | 35%7/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.26 23% | 23%4.32 | -1% | 1.6–1.6 | 20%2/10 | 15%3/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.93 25% | 25%3.99 | -2% | 1.6–1.1 | 30%3/10 | 15%3/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Crystal Palace 1X2 | 3.80 26% | 26%3.88 | -2% | 1.7–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 40%8/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Al Hazm 1X2 | 3.28 30% | 30%3.35 | -2% | 1.6–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Everton 1X2 | 2.23 45% | 44%2.28 | -2% | 1.6–1.2 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.25 24% | 23%4.35 | -2% | 1.8–1.6 | 10%1/10 | 10%2/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Aston Villa 1X2 | 3.24 31% | 30%3.32 | -2% | 1.7–1.4 | 60%6/10 | 40%8/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.74 27% | 26%3.84 | -3% | 1.3–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.07 25% | 24%4.19 | -3% | 1.8–1.3 | 70%7/10 | 50%10/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.95 25% | 25%4.07 | -3% | 1.7–1.1 | 10%1/10 | 10%2/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Frosinone 1X2 | 1.88 53% | 52%1.94 | -3% | 1.9–1.1 | 60%6/10 | 55%11/20 | 57%17/30 |   | |
Internacional 1X2 | 3.60 28% | 27%3.73 | -4% | 1.5–1.2 | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.53 28% | 27%3.66 | -4% | 1.3–1.2 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Deportivo Riestra 1X2 | 4.62 22% | 21%4.79 | -4% | 1.5–0.9 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 3.85 26% | 25%4.00 | -4% | 1.7–1.4 | 20%2/10 | 10%2/20 | 17%5/30 |   |
Goa
Sporting DelhiWed 15:00 · Indian Super League5.43+7%Sporting Delhi 1X2xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 20%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
Zamalek
Al MokawloonWed 18:00 · Premier League4.47+7%Al Mokawloon 1X2xG 1.2–1.0 · Model 24%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1527%8/30
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Karlsruher SCTue 20:45 · DFB Pokal5.55+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 19%L510%1/10L105%1/20L1520%6/30
Sheffield Wednesday
Cambridge UnitedTue 20:45 · League One3.53+6%Cambridge United 1X2xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 30%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1547%14/30
Sunderland
BrentfordWed 20:45 · Carabao Cup3.64+6%Sunderland 1X2xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 29%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
AC Milan
BolognaWed 18:30 · Serie A5.26+5%Bologna 1X2xG 1.7–1.2 · Model 20%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
Liverpool
ChelseaWed 21:00 · Carabao Cup2.87+5%Liverpool 1X2xG 1.9–1.6 · Model 37%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Borussia Dortmund
Werder BremenTue 20:45 · DFB Pokal5.31+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 20%L550%5/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
Celtic
Dundee UnitedWed 20:45 · Premiership5.50+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.9–1.3 · Model 19%L530%3/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
Holstein Kiel
TSG HoffenheimWed 20:45 · DFB Pokal4.94+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
National Bank of Egypt
Al MasryWed 15:00 · Premier League2.69+5%National Bank of Egypt 1X2xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 39%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Elversberg
Darmstadt 98Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal5.74+5%Darmstadt 98 1X2xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 18%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
Bahia
São PauloThu 01:30 · Serie A3.80+4%São Paulo 1X2xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 27%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Hamburger SV
Eintracht FrankfurtTue 18:00 · DFB Pokal2.84+2%Hamburger SV 1X2xG 1.9–1.7 · Model 36%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Juventude
NáuticoTue 00:30 · Serie B4.20+2%Draw 1X2xG 1.5–1.0 · Model 24%L550%5/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
Hannover 96
KaiserslauternWed 20:45 · DFB Pokal3.81+2%Kaiserslautern 1X2xG 1.4–1.2 · Model 27%L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1533%10/30
Bradford City
Peterborough UnitedTue 20:45 · Carabao Cup4.77+1%Peterborough United 1X2xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 21%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
Hearts
RangersWed 21:00 · Premiership3.00+1%Hearts 1X2xG 1.8–1.7 · Model 34%L530%3/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
St. Mirren
HibernianWed 20:45 · Premiership3.40+1%St. Mirren 1X2xG 1.3–1.3 · Model 30%L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Sassuolo
LazioTue 18:30 · Serie A2.94+1%Sassuolo 1X2xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 34%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
Dundee
KilmarnockWed 20:45 · Premiership3.60+1%Kilmarnock 1X2xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 28%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Paderborn
VfB StuttgartWed 18:00 · DFB Pokal4.42+1%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.5 · Model 23%L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
Dinamo Zagreb
RijekaTue 18:00 · 1. HNL4.660%Rijeka 1X2xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 22%L560%6/10L1035%7/20L1527%8/30
SC Freiburg
VfL WolfsburgWed 18:00 · DFB Pokal5.020%Draw 1X2xG 2.1–1.4 · Model 20%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
Bragantino
ChapecoenseWed 23:30 · Serie A5.000%Draw 1X2xG 2.0–1.0 · Model 20%L510%1/10L1015%3/20L1517%5/30
Argentinos Juniors
Independiente RivadaviaTue 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol3.62-1%Independiente Rivadavia 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 27%L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
Santos
PalmeirasWed 23:30 · Serie A3.00-1%Santos 1X2xG 1.4–1.4 · Model 33%L540%4/10L1035%7/20L1523%7/30
Vasco da Gama
FlamengoFri 00:00 · Serie A3.60-1%Vasco da Gama 1X2xG 1.1–1.3 · Model 27%L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
FC Köln
FC Union BerlinTue 20:45 · DFB Pokal3.88-1%FC Union Berlin 1X2xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 25%L540%4/10L1045%9/20L1533%10/30
Cherno More
Septemvri SofiaTue 16:00 · First League3.87-1%Draw 1X2xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 26%L510%1/10L1035%7/20L1530%9/30
Pyramids FC
Wadi DeglaThu 18:00 · Premier League4.16-1%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 24%L550%5/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
VfL Bochum 1848
FSV Mainz 05Tue 18:00 · DFB Pokal4.26-1%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.6 · Model 23%L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
Dynamo Dresden
Schalke 04Wed 18:00 · DFB Pokal3.93-2%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 25%L530%3/10L1015%3/20L1520%6/30
Fulham
Crystal PalaceWed 20:45 · Carabao Cup3.80-2%Crystal Palace 1X2xG 1.7–1.3 · Model 26%L520%2/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Al Khaleej
Al HazmThu 15:35 · Pro League3.28-2%Al Hazm 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 30%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1543%13/30
Everton
Newcastle UnitedThu 20:45 · Carabao Cup2.23-2%Everton 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 44%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
Manchester City
Brighton & Hove AlbionWed 20:30 · Carabao Cup4.25-2%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 23%L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1513%4/30
AFC Bournemouth
Aston VillaWed 20:45 · Carabao Cup3.24-2%Aston Villa 1X2xG 1.7–1.4 · Model 30%L560%6/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
Modern Sport FC
Al AhlyThu 15:00 · Premier League3.74-3%Draw 1X2xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 26%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
América
TijuanaThu 04:00 · Liga MX4.07-3%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 24%L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Luton Town
Doncaster RoversTue 20:45 · League One3.95-3%Draw 1X2xG 1.7–1.1 · Model 25%L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1520%6/30
Frosinone
LecceThu 18:30 · Serie A1.88-3%Frosinone 1X2xG 1.9–1.1 · Model 52%L560%6/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30
Fluminense
InternacionalWed 23:30 · Serie A3.60-4%Internacional 1X2xG 1.5–1.2 · Model 27%L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
Arda
Levski SofiaTue 18:30 · First League3.53-4%Draw 1X2xG 1.3–1.2 · Model 27%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Instituto
Deportivo RiestraTue 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol4.62-4%Deportivo Riestra 1X2xG 1.5–0.9 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 27 Oct, 01:17.
Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)
| League | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. HNL | 46% | 25.5% | 28.5% |
| 1. Lig | 46.2% | 21.3% | 32.6% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 47.9% | 27.4% | 24.8% |
| A-League Men | 35.7% | 28% | 36.3% |
| A-League Women | 43.4% | 19.7% | 36.9% |
| Admiral Bundesliga | 48% | 25% | 27% |
| AFC Champions League Elite | 43.2% | 24.2% | 32.6% |
| AFC Champions League Two | 50.6% | 18.4% | 31% |
| Africa Cup of Nations | 46.2% | 25% | 28.8% |
| Allsvenskan | 36.1% | 27% | 36.9% |
| Botola Pro | 39.2% | 33.5% | 27.4% |
| Brasileiro Women | 42.1% | 26.2% | 31.8% |
| Bundesliga | 45.5% | 25.3% | 29.2% |
| CAF Champions League | 50.6% | 28.4% | 21% |
| Carabao Cup | 45% | 7.5% | 47.5% |
| Challenger Pro League | 43.9% | 24% | 32.1% |
| Champions League | 51.8% | 15.7% | 32.5% |
| Championship | 41.9% | 25.5% | 32.6% |
| Chance Liga | 46% | 18.5% | 35.4% |
| Copa Del Rey | 26.1% | 10.9% | 63% |
| Copa do Brasil | 43.2% | 30.3% | 26.5% |
| Copa Libertadores | 47.7% | 22.7% | 29.5% |
| Copa Sudamericana | 42.9% | 33.6% | 23.5% |
| Coppa Italia | 61.1% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Coupe de France | 23.2% | 26.6% | 50.2% |
| DFB Pokal | 22.4% | 8.2% | 69.4% |
| Eerste Divisie | 41.2% | 21.3% | 37.5% |
| Ekstraklasa | 42.5% | 27.6% | 29.9% |
| Eliteserien | 53.3% | 18% | 28.7% |
| Enterprise National League | 44.7% | 21.1% | 34.2% |
| Eredivisie | 42.2% | 29.1% | 28.7% |
| Europa Conference League | 49.1% | 21.5% | 29.4% |
| Europa League | 49.5% | 18.1% | 32.4% |
| FA Cup | 48.2% | 17.5% | 34.3% |
| First Division | 37.5% | 26.7% | 35.8% |
| First League | 42.9% | 24.7% | 32.3% |
| FNL | 42.2% | 28.9% | 28.9% |
| Indian Super League | 39.8% | 31.1% | 29.1% |
| J1 League | 43.3% | 21.7% | 35% |
| K League 1 | 32.8% | 30.5% | 36.6% |
| KNVB Beker | 42.1% | 8.8% | 49.1% |
| La Liga | 48.6% | 24.6% | 26.8% |
| La Liga 2 | 46.2% | 23% | 30.8% |
| League One | 46.2% | 25.6% | 28.2% |
| League Two | 40.8% | 26.3% | 32.9% |
| Liga MX | 45.4% | 26.2% | 28.4% |
| Liga Portugal | 42.4% | 26.7% | 30.9% |
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 39.5% | 30.5% | 30% |
| Ligat ha'Al | 39.7% | 26.1% | 34.2% |
| Ligue 1 | 43.9% | 25.1% | 31% |
| Ligue 1 | 32.4% | 28.9% | 38.7% |
| Ligue 2 | 39.4% | 30.1% | 30.5% |
| Major League Soccer | 47.1% | 24.2% | 28.7% |
| Persian Gulf Pro League | 42.6% | 33.3% | 24% |
| Premier League | 34.5% | 34.5% | 31% |
| Premier League | 45.8% | 26.1% | 28.1% |
| Premier League | 35.4% | 37.1% | 27.5% |
| Premier League | 40.3% | 29.2% | 30.6% |
| Premier League | 41.4% | 24.3% | 34.3% |
| Premiership | 48.1% | 23.2% | 28.6% |
| Primera Division | 40.6% | 25.1% | 34.2% |
| Pro League | 40.8% | 22.7% | 36.5% |
| Pro League | 44.6% | 23.6% | 31.9% |
| Russian Cup | 37.5% | 27.1% | 35.4% |
| Serie A | 40.8% | 22.4% | 36.8% |
| Serie A | 49.8% | 26.3% | 23.8% |
| Serie B | 45.6% | 29.1% | 25.3% |
| Serie B | 41.6% | 31.7% | 26.7% |
| Stars League | 35.3% | 20.6% | 44.1% |
| Super League | 45.2% | 24.4% | 30.4% |
| Super League | 41.3% | 26.3% | 32.3% |
| Super League | 42.8% | 27.8% | 29.4% |
| Super Lig | 44.6% | 28.1% | 27.3% |
| Superliga | 48.4% | 22.9% | 28.7% |
| Superliga | 39.1% | 27.3% | 33.6% |
| Taça De Portugal | 48.3% | 11.7% | 40% |
| UAE Pro League | 38.1% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| UEFA Women's Champions League | 47.4% | 21.1% | 31.6% |
| UEFA Youth League | 49.4% | 16.7% | 33.9% |
| V-League | 43% | 26.1% | 31% |
| Veikkausliiga | 48.1% | 30.6% | 21.3% |
| WC Qualification Europe | 46.7% | 20% | 33.3% |
| Women's Super League | 46.2% | 18.3% | 35.6% |
| World Cup | 47.9% | 24.5% | 27.7% |
| World Cup Women Qualification Europe | 46.5% | 13.9% | 39.6% |
| Youth League | 45.9% | 16.9% | 37.2% |
How the Match Result Screener Works
Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the value it finds is a tilt on the price rather than a guess against it.
Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing value: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.
Using It With Other Stats
Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.