Card Statistics

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Card Screener

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price, with value against bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

391 matches · best line per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates and model value
	Line	Odds						L15
GrêmioAthletico PR Fri 01:30 · Serie ARef Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.61 62%	65%1.54	+4%	6.0ref +0.8	80%8/10	85%17/20	77%23/30
Lokomotiv PlovdivLudogorets Sat 13:00 · First LeagueRef Todor Nedyalkov Kirov · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.92	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	50%2.00	–	4.7ref −0.4	80%8/10	85%17/20	70%21/30
AFC BournemouthLeeds United Sat 16:00 · Premier LeagueRef Michael Salisbury · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.94	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.80 56%	56%1.79	0%	4.2ref −0.3	80%8/10	75%15/20	70%21/30
Atlético ProgresoDefensor Sporting Sun 14:00 · Primera DivisionRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	52%1.94	–	5.8	50%5/10	75%15/20	63%19/30
Lokomotiv Moskva U19Dinamo Makhachkala U19 Fri 13:00 · Youth LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.95	–	4.7	80%8/10	75%15/20	60%18/30
Sheffield UnitedWrexham Fri 21:00 · ChampionshipRef David Webb · 3.0 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.82	–	3.9ref −0.7	80%8/10	70%14/20	67%20/30
NantesClermont Fri 20:00 · Ligue 2Ref Mickaël Leleu · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.93	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	3.9ref −0.3	60%6/10	70%14/20	73%22/30
CoritibaVitória Sat 20:00 · Serie ARef Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.98	Over 4.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	53%1.89	-12%	4.7ref −0.1	50%5/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
Viborg FFHorsens Sun 14:00 · SuperligaRef Aydin Uslu · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.89	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	51%1.98	–	3.7ref −0.5	80%8/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
Corvinul HunedoaraArgeş Sat 15:00 · SuperligaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	56%1.80	–	5.0	75%6/8	69%9/13	61%11/18
Le HavreParis Saint Germain Fri 19:00 · Ligue 1Ref François Letexier · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.95	Over 2.5 Match cards	1.61 62%	63%1.59	+1%	3.5ref −0.2	60%6/10	65%13/20	67%20/30
FC VolendamDe Graafschap Fri 20:00 · Eerste DivisieRef Martin van den Kerkhof · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 2.5 Match cards	–	57%1.75	–	3.0ref −0.5	70%7/10	65%13/20	67%20/30
FC AugsburgSC Freiburg Sat 15:30 · BundesligaRef Christian Dingert · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.00	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	56%1.77	-6%	4.0	70%7/10	65%13/20	57%17/30
FalkirkCeltic Sun 14:00 · PremiershipRef Duncan Nicolson · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.03	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.90 53%	56%1.77	+7%	4.4ref +0.1	70%7/10	65%13/20	63%19/30
Esenler EroksporKeçiörengücü Fri 18:00 · 1. LigRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.87	–	4.9	60%6/10	65%13/20	53%16/30
Baltika KaliningradZenit Thu 19:45 · Russian CupRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.91	–	4.8	70%7/10	65%13/20	53%16/30
NordsjællandFC Midtjylland Sun 16:00 · SuperligaRef Lasse Læbel Graagaard · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	52%1.92	–	3.8ref −0.7	60%6/10	65%13/20	70%21/30
Racing SantanderReal Madrid Sun 16:15 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.92	–	4.8	70%7/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
Rotor VolgogradUfa Sun 14:00 · FNLRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.97	–	4.7	80%8/10	65%13/20	67%20/30
Newport CountyChesterfield Fri 20:45 · League TwoRef Zac Kennard-Kettle · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.07	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.98	–	4.7ref +0.3	50%5/10	65%13/20	57%17/30
RacingCerro Largo Sat 14:00 · Primera DivisionRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	45%2.22	–	5.4	50%5/10	65%13/20	63%19/30
Fleetwood TownBristol Rovers Sat 16:00 · League TwoRef Richard Eley · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.88	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	41%2.46	–	4.2ref −0.6	70%7/10	65%13/20	57%17/30
CeutaSporting Gijón Sun 16:15 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	39%2.53	–	5.1	50%5/10	65%13/20	60%18/30
Grenoble Foot 38Dijon Fri 20:00 · Ligue 2Ref Soulaimane Chamel · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.97	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	3.9ref −0.1	50%4/8	62%8/13	50%9/18
OtelulSepsi Sun 14:00 · SuperligaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	47%2.11	–	4.5	50%4/8	62%8/13	56%10/18
Wieczysta KrakówJagiellonia Białystok Sat 14:45 · EkstraklasaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	45%2.24	–	4.4	63%5/8	62%8/13	50%9/18
Werder BremenTSG Hoffenheim Sat 15:30 · BundesligaRef Tobias Reichel · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	59%1.70	-2%	4.3	80%8/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
TamworthWoking Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National LeagueRef Matthew McQuillan · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.96	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	57%1.77	–	4.0ref −0.2	60%6/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
MacarthurWestern Sydney Wanderers Sat 09:40 · A-League MenRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.81	–	3.9	60%6/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
Hajduk SplitGorica Sat 15:00 · 1. HNLRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	3.9	60%6/10	60%12/20	50%15/30
FC EmmenFC Den Bosch Sun 14:30 · Eerste DivisieRef Clay Ruperti · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.96	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	55%1.83	–	3.9ref −0.1	50%5/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
Dinamo Moskva U19Zenit U19 Fri 17:00 · Youth LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.84	–	3.9	50%5/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
BarrowEastleigh Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National LeagueRef P. Marsden · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.97	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	54%1.86	–	3.9ref −0.1	60%6/10	60%12/20	50%15/30
EvertonNewcastle United Thu 20:45 · Carabao CupRef Farai Hallam · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.66 60%	53%1.87	-11%	3.7ref −0.7	60%6/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
Tottenham HotspurCrystal Palace Sat 18:30 · Premier LeagueRef Michael Oliver · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.87	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.72 58%	53%1.87	-8%	3.8ref −0.6	70%7/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
CSKA 1948 SofiaSpartak Varna Fri 16:00 · First LeagueRef Martin Markov · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.02	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	53%1.90	–	4.8ref +0.1	40%4/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
St. Louis CitySan Diego Sat 20:00 · Major League SoccerRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	52%1.91	–	4.8	50%5/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
ComoVenezia Sun 12:30 · Serie ARef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	52%1.94	–	3.8	60%6/10	60%12/20	50%15/30
PachucaTigres UANL Sun 00:00 · Liga MXRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.96	–	4.7	60%6/10	60%12/20	63%19/30
Al SaddAl Shamal SC Fri 17:30 · Stars LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.98	–	4.7	60%6/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
LASK LinzWSG Tirol Sat 19:30 · Admiral BundesligaRef Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.93	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	50%1.99	–	3.7ref −0.3	40%4/10	60%12/20	57%17/30
Swansea CityBlackburn Rovers Sat 16:00 · ChampionshipRef Gavin Ward · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	46%2.19	–	3.5ref −0.6	60%6/10	60%12/20	50%15/30
Real BetisMálaga Sat 18:30 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	45%2.20	–	4.4	60%6/10	60%12/20	50%15/30
VillarrealEspanyol Fri 21:00 · La LigaRef: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	40%2.50	–	5.1	60%6/10	60%12/20	53%16/30
SD EibarAlmería Sat 16:15 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	40%2.52	–	5.1	70%7/10	60%12/20	60%18/30
VelesSpartak Kostroma Fri 16:00 · FNLRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	51%1.98	–	4.7	67%6/9	57%8/14	47%9/19
Manisa FKBatman Petrolspor Sat 17:00 · 1. LigRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	49%2.05	–	4.6	67%6/9	57%8/14	63%12/19
Solihull MoorsKidderminster Harriers Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National LeagueRef Kavan Hurn · 1.7 cards/match · ×0.86	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	48%2.10	–	3.6ref −0.6	56%5/9	57%8/14	63%12/19
Atlético BalearesEldense Thu 19:00 · Copa Del ReyRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	44%2.29	–	4.3	50%4/8	56%5/9	56%5/9
TroyesLe Mans Sat 20:45 · Ligue 1Ref Azzedine Souifi · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.96	Over 3.5 Match cards	1.61 62%	57%1.75	-8%	4.0ref −0.1	70%7/10	55%11/20	57%17/30

GrêmioAthletico PR
Fri 01:30 · Serie A
Ref Alex Gomes Stefano · 5.6 cards/match · ×1.15
1.61
+4%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 6.0 · Model 65%
L580%8/10L1085%17/20L1577%23/30
Lokomotiv PlovdivLudogorets
Sat 13:00 · First League
Ref Todor Nedyalkov Kirov · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.92
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
L580%8/10L1085%17/20L1570%21/30
AFC BournemouthLeeds United
Sat 16:00 · Premier League
Ref Michael Salisbury · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.94
1.80
0%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 56%
L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1570%21/30
Atlético ProgresoDefensor Sporting
Sun 14:00 · Primera Division
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.8 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1075%15/20L1563%19/30
Lokomotiv Moskva U19Dinamo Makhachkala U19
Fri 13:00 · Youth League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1560%18/30
Sheffield UnitedWrexham
Fri 21:00 · Championship
Ref David Webb · 3.0 cards/match · ×0.85
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
NantesClermont
Fri 20:00 · Ligue 2
Ref Mickaël Leleu · 3.8 cards/match · ×0.93
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1070%14/20L1573%22/30
CoritibaVitória
Sat 20:00 · Serie A
Ref Jonathan Benkenstein Pinheiro · 4.2 cards/match · ×0.98
1.66
-12%
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 53%
L550%5/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
Viborg FFHorsens
Sun 14:00 · Superliga
Ref Aydin Uslu · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.89
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.7 · Model 51%
L580%8/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
Corvinul HunedoaraArgeş
Sat 15:00 · Superliga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.0 · Model 56%
L575%6/8L1069%9/13L1561%11/18
Le HavreParis Saint Germain
Fri 19:00 · Ligue 1
Ref François Letexier · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.95
1.61
+1%
Over 2.5 Match cards
Exp 3.5 · Model 63%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
FC VolendamDe Graafschap
Fri 20:00 · Eerste Divisie
Ref Martin van den Kerkhof · 3.4 cards/match · ×0.85
–
–
Over 2.5 Match cards
Exp 3.0 · Model 57%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
FC AugsburgSC Freiburg
Sat 15:30 · Bundesliga
Ref Christian Dingert · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.00
1.66
-6%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
FalkirkCeltic
Sun 14:00 · Premiership
Ref Duncan Nicolson · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.03
1.90
+7%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 56%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
Esenler EroksporKeçiörengücü
Fri 18:00 · 1. Lig
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.9 · Model 53%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
Baltika KaliningradZenit
Thu 19:45 · Russian Cup
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1553%16/30
NordsjællandFC Midtjylland
Sun 16:00 · Superliga
Ref Lasse Læbel Graagaard · 3.1 cards/match · ×0.85
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
L560%6/10L1065%13/20L1570%21/30
Racing SantanderReal Madrid
Sun 16:15 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
Rotor VolgogradUfa
Sun 14:00 · FNL
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L580%8/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
Newport CountyChesterfield
Fri 20:45 · League Two
Ref Zac Kennard-Kettle · 4.7 cards/match · ×1.07
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
RacingCerro Largo
Sat 14:00 · Primera Division
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.4 · Model 45%
L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
Fleetwood TownBristol Rovers
Sat 16:00 · League Two
Ref Richard Eley · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.88
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.2 · Model 41%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1557%17/30
CeutaSporting Gijón
Sun 16:15 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 39%
L550%5/10L1065%13/20L1560%18/30
Grenoble Foot 38Dijon
Fri 20:00 · Ligue 2
Ref Soulaimane Chamel · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.97
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L550%4/8L1062%8/13L1550%9/18
OtelulSepsi
Sun 14:00 · Superliga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.5 · Model 47%
L550%4/8L1062%8/13L1556%10/18
Wieczysta KrakówJagiellonia Białystok
Sat 14:45 · Ekstraklasa
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 45%
L563%5/8L1062%8/13L1550%9/18
Werder BremenTSG Hoffenheim
Sat 15:30 · Bundesliga
Ref Tobias Reichel · 4.3 cards/match · ×1.01
1.66
-2%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.3 · Model 59%
L580%8/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
TamworthWoking
Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National League
Ref Matthew McQuillan · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.96
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
MacarthurWestern Sydney Wanderers
Sat 09:40 · A-League Men
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
Hajduk SplitGorica
Sat 15:00 · 1. HNL
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
FC EmmenFC Den Bosch
Sun 14:30 · Eerste Divisie
Ref Clay Ruperti · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.96
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 55%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Dinamo Moskva U19Zenit U19
Fri 17:00 · Youth League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
BarrowEastleigh
Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National League
Ref P. Marsden · 4.1 cards/match · ×0.97
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.9 · Model 54%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
EvertonNewcastle United
Thu 20:45 · Carabao Cup
Ref Farai Hallam · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.85
1.66
-11%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.7 · Model 53%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
Tottenham HotspurCrystal Palace
Sat 18:30 · Premier League
Ref Michael Oliver · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.87
1.72
-8%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
CSKA 1948 SofiaSpartak Varna
Fri 16:00 · First League
Ref Martin Markov · 4.5 cards/match · ×1.02
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 53%
L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
St. Louis CitySan Diego
Sat 20:00 · Major League Soccer
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.8 · Model 52%
L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
ComoVenezia
Sun 12:30 · Serie A
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 52%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
PachucaTigres UANL
Sun 00:00 · Liga MX
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1563%19/30
Al SaddAl Shamal SC
Fri 17:30 · Stars League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
LASK LinzWSG Tirol
Sat 19:30 · Admiral Bundesliga
Ref Chiristian-Petru Ciochirca · 3.9 cards/match · ×0.93
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.7 · Model 50%
L540%4/10L1060%12/20L1557%17/30
Swansea CityBlackburn Rovers
Sat 16:00 · Championship
Ref Gavin Ward · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.86
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.5 · Model 46%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
Real BetisMálaga
Sat 18:30 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 45%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1550%15/30
VillarrealEspanyol
Fri 21:00 · La Liga
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 40%
L560%6/10L1060%12/20L1553%16/30
SD EibarAlmería
Sat 16:15 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 40%
L570%7/10L1060%12/20L1560%18/30
VelesSpartak Kostroma
Fri 16:00 · FNL
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 51%
L567%6/9L1057%8/14L1547%9/19
Manisa FKBatman Petrolspor
Sat 17:00 · 1. Lig
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.6 · Model 49%
L567%6/9L1057%8/14L1563%12/19
Solihull MoorsKidderminster Harriers
Sat 16:00 · Enterprise National League
Ref Kavan Hurn · 1.7 cards/match · ×0.86
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.6 · Model 48%
L556%5/9L1057%8/14L1563%12/19
Atlético BalearesEldense
Thu 19:00 · Copa Del Rey
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.3 · Model 44%
L550%4/8L1056%5/9L1556%5/9
TroyesLe Mans
Sat 20:45 · Ligue 1
Ref Azzedine Souifi · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.96
1.61
-8%
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 57%
L570%7/10L1055%11/20L1557%17/30

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 29 Oct, 15:17.

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Anderson Daronco	59	5.1	×1.15	PalmeirasvVasco da GamaSun 20:00 · Copa do Brasil	4.8 → 5.5
Facundo Tello Figueroa	55	5.3	×1.15	Vélez SarsfieldvSan LorenzoSat 23:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.2 → 6.0
Yael Falcón Pérez	54	5.8	×1.15	Atlético TucumánvArgentinos JuniorsTue 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.5 → 6.3
Darío Herrera	48	6.3	×1.15	Deportivo RiestravTalleres CórdobaSat 21:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.8 → 5.5
Bruno Arleu de Araujo	44	5.5	×1.15	Vasco da GamavFlamengoFri 00:00 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.6
Bruno Arleu de Araujo	44	5.5	×1.15	FortalezavAtlético GOMon 20:00 · Serie B	5.0 → 5.7
Paulo Cesar Zanovelli	43	5.7	×1.15	FlamengovGrêmioWed 23:30 · Serie A	5.2 → 5.9
Felipe Fernandes de Lima	40	5.6	×1.15	GoiásvCRBTue 00:30 · Serie B	4.3 → 4.9
Alex Gomes Stefano	39	5.6	×1.15	GrêmiovAthletico PRFri 01:30 · Serie A	5.3 → 6.0
Alex Gomes Stefano	39	5.6	×1.15	Athletic ClubvCearáMon 22:00 · Serie B	4.6 → 5.3
Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima	36	5.5	×1.15	Vila NovavJuventudeSat 21:30 · Serie B	5.0 → 5.8
Lucas Paulo Torezin	36	5.6	×1.15	ChapecoensevMirassolTue 23:30 · Serie A	4.6 → 5.3
Nazareno Arasa	35	5.8	×1.15	Racing ClubvAldosiviSat 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.7
Andrés Merlos	33	5.7	×1.15	SarmientovRosario CentralSat 01:15 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.0 → 5.7
André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento	32	5.7	×1.15	NovorizontinovOperário PRSun 22:30 · Serie B	5.6 → 6.4
Fernando Antonio Mendes de Salles Nascimento Fillho	32	5.5	×1.15	InternacionalvCoritibaWed 01:30 · Serie A	4.5 → 5.2
Ruebyn Ricardo	31	5.6	×1.15	BurnleyvPortsmouthSat 16:00 · Championship	4.4 → 5.0
Radoslav Gidzhenov	31	6.0	×1.15	CSKA SofiavSlavia SofiaSat 18:30 · First League	4.7 → 5.5
Bastien Dechepy	30	5.2	×1.15	MetzvPauFri 20:00 · Ligue 2	4.1 → 4.7
Afro Rocha de Carvalho Filho	30	5.2	×1.15	NáuticovAvaíSat 23:30 · Serie B	4.7 → 5.4
Nicolás Ramírez	30	7.1	×1.15	Boca JuniorsvRiver PlateSun 19:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.2 → 5.9
John Brooks	29	5.3	×1.15	Newcastle UnitedvEvertonMon 21:00 · Premier League	4.4 → 5.0
Sebastián Nicolás Martínez	29	6.3	×1.15	Defensa y JusticiavIndependienteMon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.6 → 5.3
Edina Alves Batista	28	6.3	×1.15	BragantinovSantosTue 00:00 · Serie A	5.0 → 5.8
Florian Exner	25	5.9	×1.15	Eintracht FrankfurtvHamburger SVSun 17:30 · Bundesliga	4.0 → 4.5
Christos Vergetis	24	5.3	×1.15	KalamatavIraklisMon 18:30 · Super League	4.2 → 4.9
Richard Hempel	14	5.8	×1.15	FC Union BerlinvFC KölnSun 15:30 · Bundesliga	4.1 → 4.7
Daniel Zamora	10	6.1	×1.15	Newell's Old BoysvUnión Santa FeSun 22:30 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.1 → 5.9
Alexandros Katsikogiannis	9	6.7	×1.15	AtromitosvVolos NFCMon 17:00 · Super League	4.8 → 5.5
Ramon Abatti	42	5.1	×1.15	Athletico PRvVasco da GamaWed 23:30 · Serie A	5.0 → 5.7
Volen Chinkov	20	5.2	×1.14	Lokomotiv Sofia 1929vBotev PlovdivFri 18:30 · First League	4.3 → 4.9
Pablo Dóvalo	28	5.1	×1.13	PlatensevCentral Cordoba SdEMon 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	4.6 → 5.3
Leandro Rey Hilfer	42	5.0	×1.13	HuracánvTigreFri 23:00 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol	5.4 → 6.1
Rafael Rodrigo Klein	47	5.0	×1.13	Botafogo SPvSport RecifeSat 20:00 · Serie B	5.0 → 5.7
Jason Richardson	9	5.4	×1.13	WealdstonevSouthend UnitedSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	3.8 → 4.3
Davi de Oliveira Lacerda	52	4.9	×1.12	GrêmiovAtlético MineiroSun 22:30 · Copa do Brasil	4.7 → 5.3
Matheus Delgado Candançan	36	4.9	×1.12	CorinthiansvMirassolSat 00:00 · Serie A	4.9 → 5.5
Max Burda	20	5.0	×1.12	Schalke 04vRB LeipzigSat 15:30 · Bundesliga	3.9 → 4.4
Andy Madley	9	5.3	×1.11	LiverpoolvArsenalSun 17:30 · Premier League	4.1 → 4.6
David Rock	41	4.9	×1.11	Oldham AthleticvCrawley TownSat 16:00 · League Two	4.0 → 4.5

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.