Match Result Screener
Home, draw or away for every upcoming match, plus draw no bet and double chance: what the goals model makes each one, how both teams' recent results back it, and whether the price is value.
Match Result Screener
Every upcoming match with the model's home, draw and away chances, both teams' recent results through each selection, and the value against Pinnacle where the match is priced.
Smart views
243 matches · best line per match
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Draw 1X2 | 6.10 16% | 18%5.56 | +10% | 1.8–1.9 | 40%4/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Troyes 1X2 | 5.15 19% | 21%4.71 | +9% | 1.8–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Ceuta 1X2 | 4.14 24% | 26%3.80 | +9% | 1.4–1.3 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 50%15/30 |   | |
JEF United 1X2 | 4.60 22% | 24%4.22 | +9% | 1.6–1.3 | 38%3/8 | 38%5/13 | 40%6/15 |   | |
Toronto 1X2 | 4.99 20% | 22%4.58 | +9% | 1.9–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.25 19% | 21%4.82 | +9% | 1.5–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 30%6/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Crystal Palace 1X2 | 3.07 33% | 35%2.82 | +9% | 1.8–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Standard Liège 1X2 | 4.72 21% | 23%4.34 | +9% | 1.4–1.1 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Grasshopper 1X2 | 4.32 23% | 25%3.98 | +9% | 1.6–1.4 | 70%7/10 | 50%10/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Pachuca 1X2 | 5.08 20% | 21%4.71 | +8% | 1.9–1.4 | 10%1/10 | 25%5/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Le Havre 1X2 | 4.98 20% | 22%4.62 | +8% | 1.6–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 40%8/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.75 17% | 19%5.37 | +7% | 2.1–1.3 | 20%2/10 | 15%3/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2 | 3.24 31% | 33%3.03 | +7% | 1.6–1.7 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.14 19% | 21%4.81 | +7% | 1.4–1.6 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
SK Beveren 1X2 | 3.35 30% | 32%3.14 | +7% | 1.5–1.6 | 70%7/10 | 65%13/20 | 63%19/30 |   | |
Pardubice 1X2 | 5.12 20% | 21%4.80 | +7% | 1.6–1.2 | 60%6/10 | 50%10/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Sunderland 1X2 | 3.23 31% | 33%3.03 | +7% | 1.4–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.70 18% | 19%5.35 | +7% | 2.0–1.2 | 0%0/10 | 5%1/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Celta de Vigo 1X2 | 3.01 33% | 35%2.83 | +6% | 1.6–1.3 | 40%4/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.55 18% | 19%5.22 | +6% | 1.8–1.6 | 10%1/10 | 5%1/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Cambridge United 1X2 | 3.53 28% | 30%3.32 | +6% | 1.3–1.4 | 50%5/10 | 40%8/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.05 20% | 21%4.76 | +6% | 1.5–1.5 | 40%4/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Otelul 1X2 | 4.19 24% | 25%3.96 | +6% | 1.5–1.3 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
SJ Earthquakes 1X2 | 4.14 24% | 26%3.91 | +6% | 1.8–1.5 | 20%2/10 | 35%7/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
Odense BK 1X2 | 6.47 15% | 16%6.12 | +6% | 2.0–1.1 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 6.01 17% | 18%5.69 | +6% | 2.3–1.7 | 0%0/10 | 0%0/20 | 0%0/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.81 21% | 22%4.56 | +6% | 1.6–1.1 | 10%1/10 | 20%4/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.91 20% | 22%4.65 | +6% | 1.4–1.6 | 10%1/10 | 20%4/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.39 19% | 20%5.10 | +6% | 2.0–1.3 | 0%0/10 | 20%4/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.11 20% | 21%4.85 | +5% | 1.7–1.5 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Fredrikstad 1X2 | 6.16 16% | 17%5.84 | +5% | 2.0–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 5.31 19% | 20%5.05 | +5% | 1.9–1.2 | 50%5/10 | 25%5/20 | 20%6/30 |   | |
AFC Bournemouth 1X2 | 3.39 29% | 31%3.23 | +5% | 1.5–1.5 | 50%5/10 | 45%9/20 | 40%12/30 |   | |
Real Oviedo 1X2 | 5.34 19% | 20%5.08 | +5% | 1.8–1.2 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Levante 1X2 | 4.84 21% | 22%4.62 | +5% | 2.1–1.4 | 10%1/10 | 20%4/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.92 20% | 21%4.70 | +5% | 1.4–1.6 | 30%3/10 | 35%7/20 | 33%10/30 |   | |
Aldosivi 1X2 | 4.02 25% | 26%3.84 | +5% | 1.1–1.3 | 10%1/10 | 10%2/20 | 17%5/30 |   | |
Darmstadt 98 1X2 | 5.74 17% | 18%5.49 | +5% | 2.1–1.3 | 30%3/10 | 20%4/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
KAS Eupen 1X2 | 3.19 31% | 33%3.05 | +5% | 1.6–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 30%6/20 | 27%8/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.77 21% | 22%4.57 | +5% | 1.7–1.0 | 20%2/10 | 10%2/20 | 13%4/30 |   | |
Horsens 1X2 | 2.43 41% | 43%2.33 | +4% | 1.7–1.1 | 50%5/10 | 60%12/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
Istra 1961 1X2 | 4.08 25% | 26%3.91 | +4% | 1.2–1.4 | 20%2/10 | 25%5/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
Central Coast Mariners 1X2 | 4.04 25% | 26%3.88 | +4% | 1.6–1.4 | 30%3/10 | 30%6/20 | 37%11/30 |   | |
AGF 1X2 | 2.43 41% | 43%2.33 | +4% | 1.8–1.1 | 50%5/10 | 50%10/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Burgos 1X2 | 4.20 24% | 25%4.05 | +4% | 1.3–1.1 | 80%8/10 | 50%10/20 | 47%14/30 |   | |
Cerro Largo 1X2 | 2.78 36% | 37%2.69 | +3% | 1.5–1.1 | 40%4/10 | 40%8/20 | 43%13/30 |   | |
Draw 1X2 | 4.45 22% | 23%4.30 | +3% | 1.5–1.2 | 0%0/10 | 15%3/20 | 23%7/30 |   | |
CSKA Moskva 1X2 | 3.00 33% | 34%2.90 | +3% | 1.5–1.4 | 40%4/10 | 30%6/20 | 30%9/30 |   | |
Querétaro 1X2 | 3.78 26% | 27%3.66 | +3% | 1.4–1.5 | 20%2/10 | 20%4/20 | 17%5/30 |   | |
Sandefjord 1X2 | 3.03 33% | 34%2.94 | +3% | 1.5–1.6 | 40%4/10 | 50%10/20 | 47%14/30 |   |
SC Freiburg
FC Bayern MünchenSun 17:30 · Bundesliga6.10+10%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.9 · Model 18%L540%4/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Toulouse
TroyesSun 17:15 · Ligue 15.15+9%Troyes 1X2xG 1.8–1.3 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1540%12/30
Cádiz
CeutaSun 16:15 · La Liga 24.14+9%Ceuta 1X2xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 26%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1550%15/30
Cerezo Osaka
JEF UnitedSun 07:00 · J1 League4.60+9%JEF United 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 24%L538%3/8L1038%5/13L1540%6/15
Columbus Crew
TorontoSat 21:30 · Major League Soccer4.99+9%Toronto 1X2xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 22%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1540%12/30
Beşiktaş
İstanbul BaşakşehirMon 17:00 · Super Lig5.25+9%Draw 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 21%L520%2/10L1030%6/20L1523%7/30
Crystal Palace
Newcastle UnitedSun 15:00 · Premier League3.07+9%Crystal Palace 1X2xG 1.8–1.4 · Model 35%L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1537%11/30
Genk
Standard LiègeSun 13:30 · Pro League4.72+9%Standard Liège 1X2xG 1.4–1.1 · Model 23%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Basel
GrasshopperSun 16:30 · Super League4.32+9%Grasshopper 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 25%L570%7/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
América
PachucaMon 02:05 · Liga MX5.08+8%Pachuca 1X2xG 1.9–1.4 · Model 21%L510%1/10L1025%5/20L1537%11/30
Olympique Marseille
Le HavreSun 17:15 · Ligue 14.98+8%Le Havre 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 22%L530%3/10L1040%8/20L1533%10/30
Inter
FiorentinaSun 12:30 · Serie A5.75+7%Draw 1X2xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 19%L520%2/10L1015%3/20L1527%8/30
Liverpool
Brighton & Hove AlbionSun 15:00 · Premier League3.24+7%Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2xG 1.6–1.7 · Model 33%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1540%12/30
Volos NFC
PanathinaikosSun 17:00 · Super League5.14+7%Draw 1X2xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 21%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1530%9/30
Westerlo
SK BeverenSat 20:45 · Pro League3.35+7%SK Beveren 1X2xG 1.5–1.6 · Model 32%L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1563%19/30
Viktoria Plzeň
PardubiceSun 18:00 · Chance Liga5.12+7%Pardubice 1X2xG 1.6–1.2 · Model 21%L560%6/10L1050%10/20L1540%12/30
Sunderland
Leeds UnitedSun 17:30 · Premier League3.23+7%Sunderland 1X2xG 1.4–1.3 · Model 33%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
Club Brugge
Sint-TruidenSun 16:00 · Pro League5.70+7%Draw 1X2xG 2.0–1.2 · Model 19%L50%0/10L105%1/20L1513%4/30
Celta de Vigo
Real BetisSun 16:15 · La Liga3.01+6%Celta de Vigo 1X2xG 1.6–1.3 · Model 35%L540%4/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Karlsruher SCTue 20:45 · DFB Pokal5.55+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.8–1.6 · Model 19%L510%1/10L105%1/20L1520%6/30
Sheffield Wednesday
Cambridge UnitedTue 20:45 · League One3.53+6%Cambridge United 1X2xG 1.3–1.4 · Model 30%L550%5/10L1040%8/20L1547%14/30
Farul Constanța
OtelulSun 15:00 · Superliga4.19+6%Otelul 1X2xG 1.5–1.3 · Model 25%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Dallas
SJ EarthquakesSun 02:30 · Major League Soccer4.14+6%SJ Earthquakes 1X2xG 1.8–1.5 · Model 26%L520%2/10L1035%7/20L1537%11/30
FC København
Odense BKMon 19:00 · Superliga6.47+6%Odense BK 1X2xG 2.0–1.1 · Model 16%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
FC Barcelona
Real MadridSun 21:00 · La Liga6.01+6%Draw 1X2xG 2.3–1.7 · Model 18%L50%0/10L100%0/20L150%0/30
Palermo
CarrareseSun 15:00 · Serie B4.81+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.6–1.1 · Model 22%L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
Santa Clara
BenficaMon 19:45 · Liga Portugal4.91+6%Draw 1X2xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 22%L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1527%8/30
Paris Saint Germain
Olympique LyonnaisSun 20:45 · Ligue 15.39+6%Draw 1X2xG 2.0–1.3 · Model 20%L50%0/10L1020%4/20L1520%6/30
FC Midtjylland
Lyngby BoldklubSun 14:00 · Superliga5.11+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.7–1.5 · Model 21%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1527%8/30
Molde
FredrikstadSun 19:15 · Eliteserien6.16+5%Fredrikstad 1X2xG 2.0–1.2 · Model 17%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1530%9/30
Borussia Dortmund
Werder BremenTue 20:45 · DFB Pokal5.31+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.9–1.2 · Model 20%L550%5/10L1025%5/20L1520%6/30
Manchester United
AFC BournemouthSun 15:00 · Premier League3.39+5%AFC Bournemouth 1X2xG 1.5–1.5 · Model 31%L550%5/10L1045%9/20L1540%12/30
Almería
Real OviedoSat 21:00 · La Liga 25.34+5%Real Oviedo 1X2xG 1.8–1.2 · Model 20%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Real Sociedad
LevanteSun 18:30 · La Liga4.84+5%Levante 1X2xG 2.1–1.4 · Model 22%L510%1/10L1020%4/20L1533%10/30
Sparta Rotterdam
AjaxSun 16:45 · Eredivisie4.92+5%Draw 1X2xG 1.4–1.6 · Model 21%L530%3/10L1035%7/20L1533%10/30
Aldosivi
BelgranoSun 18:45 · Liga Profesional de Fútbol4.02+5%Aldosivi 1X2xG 1.1–1.3 · Model 26%L510%1/10L1010%2/20L1517%5/30
Elversberg
Darmstadt 98Tue 20:45 · DFB Pokal5.74+5%Darmstadt 98 1X2xG 2.1–1.3 · Model 18%L530%3/10L1020%4/20L1523%7/30
KAS Eupen
K. Beerschot V.A.Sun 16:00 · Challenger Pro League3.19+5%KAS Eupen 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 33%L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1527%8/30
Horsens
Sønderjyske FodboldSun 16:00 · Superliga2.43+4%Horsens 1X2xG 1.7–1.1 · Model 43%L550%5/10L1060%12/20L1547%14/30
Istra 1961
Hajduk SplitMon 18:00 · 1. HNL4.08+4%Istra 1961 1X2xG 1.2–1.4 · Model 26%L520%2/10L1025%5/20L1523%7/30
Wellington Phoenix
Central Coast MarinersSun 03:00 · A-League Men4.04+4%Central Coast Mariners 1X2xG 1.6–1.4 · Model 26%L530%3/10L1030%6/20L1537%11/30
AGF
Viborg FFSun 18:00 · Superliga2.43+4%AGF 1X2xG 1.8–1.1 · Model 43%L550%5/10L1050%10/20L1543%13/30
FC Andorra
BurgosMon 20:30 · La Liga 24.20+4%Burgos 1X2xG 1.3–1.1 · Model 25%L580%8/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Cerro Largo
Boston RiverSun 20:00 · Primera Division2.78+3%Cerro Largo 1X2xG 1.5–1.1 · Model 37%L540%4/10L1040%8/20L1543%13/30
Gil Vicente
PortoSat 21:30 · Liga Portugal4.45+3%Draw 1X2xG 1.5–1.2 · Model 23%L50%0/10L1015%3/20L1523%7/30
CSKA Moskva
Spartak MoskvaSun 14:00 · Premier League3.00+3%CSKA Moskva 1X2xG 1.5–1.4 · Model 34%L540%4/10L1030%6/20L1530%9/30
Querétaro
Cruz AzulMon 02:00 · Liga MX3.78+3%Querétaro 1X2xG 1.4–1.5 · Model 27%L520%2/10L1020%4/20L1517%5/30
Start
SandefjordSun 17:00 · Eliteserien3.03+3%Sandefjord 1X2xG 1.5–1.6 · Model 34%L540%4/10L1050%10/20L1547%14/30
Hit rates read both teams' last 5, 10 and 15 results through the selection: a home win counts the home side's wins and the away side's defeats, a double chance their unbeaten and winless runs; draw no bet leaves draws out. Model: expected goals from each side's recent for/against (weighted toward recent games, shrunk to the average team, with a home advantage measured from the data), turned into home / draw / away by a Poisson score grid with the Dixon-Coles correction for low scores. Where the match is priced the chance shown is 70% the margin-free market price and 30% the model, because a form model cannot see squad quality the way a sharp market does; when the model alone sits 15+ points above the market, or at more than 1.5 times its chance, the row is marked disputed and shows no EV. Odds: Pinnacle (bet365 where Pinnacle has no price). Draw no bet and double chance are priced from the same 1X2 odds. EV is chance × odds − 1. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 24 Oct, 22:17.
Home, draw and away rates by league (last 12 months, min. 30 matches)
| League | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. HNL | 45.3% | 25.2% | 29.5% |
| 1. Lig | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| 2. Bundesliga | 47.7% | 27.4% | 24.9% |
| A-League Men | 37.3% | 27.3% | 35.4% |
| A-League Women | 43.4% | 19.7% | 36.9% |
| Admiral Bundesliga | 47.4% | 24.7% | 27.9% |
| AFC Champions League Elite | 43.2% | 24.2% | 32.6% |
| AFC Champions League Two | 50.6% | 18.4% | 31% |
| Africa Cup of Nations | 46.2% | 25% | 28.8% |
| Allsvenskan | 36.7% | 26.6% | 36.7% |
| Botola Pro | 39.4% | 33.8% | 26.9% |
| Brasileiro Women | 42.1% | 26.2% | 31.8% |
| Bundesliga | 45.9% | 24.7% | 29.4% |
| CAF Champions League | 53.7% | 28.4% | 17.9% |
| Carabao Cup | 45% | 7.5% | 47.5% |
| Challenger Pro League | 44.1% | 23.8% | 32.2% |
| Champions League | 51.8% | 15.7% | 32.5% |
| Championship | 42.4% | 25.3% | 32.3% |
| Chance Liga | 45.4% | 19.4% | 35.2% |
| Copa Del Rey | 26.1% | 10.9% | 63% |
| Copa do Brasil | 43.2% | 30.3% | 26.5% |
| Copa Libertadores | 47.7% | 22.7% | 29.5% |
| Copa Sudamericana | 42.9% | 33.6% | 23.5% |
| Coppa Italia | 61.1% | 19.4% | 19.4% |
| Coupe de France | 23.2% | 26.6% | 50.2% |
| DFB Pokal | 22.4% | 8.2% | 69.4% |
| Eerste Divisie | 41.2% | 21.5% | 37.2% |
| Ekstraklasa | 43.6% | 27.3% | 29.1% |
| Eliteserien | 53.2% | 17.7% | 29.1% |
| Enterprise National League | 44.9% | 21.7% | 33.4% |
| Eredivisie | 42.5% | 28.6% | 29% |
| Europa Conference League | 49.1% | 21.5% | 29.4% |
| Europa League | 49.5% | 18.1% | 32.4% |
| FA Cup | 48.2% | 17.5% | 34.3% |
| First Division | 37.4% | 26% | 36.6% |
| First League | 43.6% | 24.8% | 31.7% |
| FNL | 42.8% | 29.4% | 27.8% |
| Indian Super League | 39.8% | 31.1% | 29.1% |
| J1 League | 45.7% | 22.9% | 31.4% |
| K League 1 | 33.6% | 29.9% | 36.5% |
| KNVB Beker | 42.1% | 8.8% | 49.1% |
| La Liga | 48.4% | 24.6% | 27% |
| La Liga 2 | 46.1% | 23.2% | 30.8% |
| League One | 45.8% | 25.7% | 28.4% |
| League Two | 41.1% | 26.5% | 32.4% |
| Liga MX | 45.4% | 26.9% | 27.7% |
| Liga Portugal | 42.8% | 26.4% | 30.8% |
| Liga Profesional de Fútbol | 39.7% | 30.5% | 29.9% |
| Ligat ha'Al | 39.5% | 26.8% | 33.7% |
| Ligue 1 | 32.4% | 28.9% | 38.7% |
| Ligue 1 | 44.4% | 24.4% | 31.2% |
| Ligue 2 | 40.2% | 29.7% | 30.1% |
| Major League Soccer | 47.3% | 24.3% | 28.4% |
| Persian Gulf Pro League | 42.4% | 32.6% | 25% |
| Premier League | 34.5% | 34.5% | 31% |
| Premier League | 46.3% | 26.9% | 26.9% |
| Premier League | 35% | 37.2% | 27.8% |
| Premier League | 40.9% | 28.5% | 30.6% |
| Premier League | 41.2% | 24.6% | 34.2% |
| Premiership | 48.7% | 22.5% | 28.8% |
| Primera Division | 40% | 25.1% | 34.9% |
| Pro League | 44.1% | 24% | 31.9% |
| Pro League | 40.4% | 23.8% | 35.8% |
| Russian Cup | 37.5% | 27.1% | 35.4% |
| Serie A | 49.8% | 26.1% | 24.1% |
| Serie A | 40.9% | 23% | 36.1% |
| Serie B | 45.6% | 29.2% | 25.2% |
| Serie B | 40.6% | 31.4% | 27.9% |
| Stars League | 35.2% | 19.4% | 45.4% |
| Super League | 44.3% | 25.9% | 29.9% |
| Super League | 41.6% | 26% | 32.4% |
| Super League | 42.8% | 27.9% | 29.4% |
| Super Lig | 44.8% | 27.8% | 27.4% |
| Superliga | 48% | 22.9% | 29.1% |
| Superliga | 37.9% | 28% | 34.1% |
| Taça De Portugal | 48.3% | 11.7% | 40% |
| UAE Pro League | 38.1% | 28.6% | 33.3% |
| UEFA Women's Champions League | 47.4% | 21.1% | 31.6% |
| UEFA Youth League | 49.4% | 16.7% | 33.9% |
| V-League | 42.9% | 25.2% | 32% |
| Veikkausliiga | 47.3% | 30.9% | 21.8% |
| WC Qualification Europe | 46.7% | 20% | 33.3% |
| Women's Super League | 46.2% | 18.3% | 35.6% |
| World Cup | 47.9% | 24.5% | 27.7% |
| World Cup Women Qualification Europe | 46.5% | 13.9% | 39.6% |
| Youth League | 45.9% | 16.9% | 37.2% |
How the Match Result Screener Works
Each row is one selection: a home win, a draw or an away win, or the draw-no-bet and double-chance versions of them. The model turns each side's recent goals for and against into expected goals, adds the home advantage seen in the data, and reads home, draw and away off a score grid. Where the match is priced, that model leans on the sharp market price, so the value it finds is a tilt on the price rather than a guess against it.
Draw no bet refunds the stake on a draw, so it is priced off the 1X2 without the draw; double chance covers two of the three outcomes at shorter odds. When the model alone rates a team far above the market, the row is marked disputed instead of showing value: a gap that big usually means team news or squad quality the model cannot see.
Using It With Other Stats
Check the form guide and home/away records behind a pick, the goal screener for how open the match should be, and the model accas to combine picks.