Card Statistics
Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.
Card Screener
Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.
| Line | Odds | L15 | Last 10 · home / away | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ref Michael MacDermid · 4.6 cards/match · ×1.08 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.80 56% | 62%1.62 | +11% | 4.9ref +0.4 | 90%9/10 | 90%18/20 | 77%23/30 |   |
| Ref Sascha Stegemann · 4.0 cards/match · ×0.98 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 1.72 58% | 56%1.78 | -4% | 4.1ref −0.1 | 80%8/10 | 85%17/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref John Beaton · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.07 | Over 2.5 Match cards | 1.57 64% | 69%1.45 | +8% | 4.2ref +0.3 | 70%7/10 | 80%16/20 | 80%24/30 |   |
| Ref Michael Tykgaard · 3.7 cards/match · ×0.94 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 53%1.88 | – | 3.8ref −0.3 | 80%8/10 | 80%16/20 | 70%21/30 |   |
| Ref Lewis Sandoe · 3.2 cards/match · ×0.85 | Over 2.5 Match cards | 1.57 64% | 62%1.60 | -2% | 3.4ref −0.6 | 63%5/8 | 77%10/13 | 67%12/18 |   |
| Ref E. Mallo Fernández · 5.9 cards/match · ×1.15 | Over 4.5 Match cards | 1.66 60% | 62%1.60 | +4% | 5.8ref +0.8 | 70%7/10 | 75%15/20 | 60%18/30 |   |
| Ref: not assigned yet | Over 4.5 Match cards | – | 54%1.85 | – | 4.9 | 80%8/10 | 75%15/20 | 59%17/29 |   |
| Ref Isaac Searle · 4.4 cards/match · ×1.05 | Over 3.5 Match cards | 2.25 44% | 53%1.89 | +19% | 4.5ref +0.2 | 67%6/9 | 71%10/14 | 58%11/19 |   |
| Ref Danny Desmond Makkelie · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.87 | Over 2.5 Match cards | – | 59%1.68 | – | 3.1ref −0.5 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 67%20/30 |   |
| Ref Yücel Büyük · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.96 | Over 3.5 Match cards | – | 59%1.69 | – | 4.1ref −0.2 | 70%7/10 | 70%14/20 | 57%17/30 |   |
- 1.80+11%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 62%L590%9/10L1090%18/20L1577%23/30
- 1.72-4%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 56%L580%8/10L1085%17/20L1570%21/30
- 1.57+8%Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 4.2 · Model 69%L570%7/10L1080%16/20L1580%24/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 3.8 · Model 53%L580%8/10L1080%16/20L1570%21/30
- 1.57-2%Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 3.4 · Model 62%L563%5/8L1077%10/13L1567%12/18
- 1.66+4%Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 5.8 · Model 62%L570%7/10L1075%15/20L1560%18/30
- ––Over 4.5 Match cardsExp 4.9 · Model 54%L580%8/10L1075%15/20L1559%17/29
- 2.25+19%Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.5 · Model 53%L567%6/9L1071%10/14L1558%11/19
- ––Over 2.5 Match cardsExp 3.1 · Model 59%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1567%20/30
- ––Over 3.5 Match cardsExp 4.1 · Model 59%L570%7/10L1070%14/20L1557%17/30
Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 8 Nov, 01:17.
Referees this week — strictest first
| Referee | Cards / match | Effect | Next match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bruno Arleu de Araujo | 5.5 | ×1.15 |  Vila Novav Criciúma · Serie B |
| Alex Gomes Stefano | 5.3 | ×1.15 |  Náuticov CRB · Serie B |
| Wagner do Nascimento Magalhaes | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  Goiásv Ponte Preta · Serie B |
| Víctor Rivas | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  Austinv Portland Timbers · Major League Soccer |
| Radoslav Gidzhenov | 5.6 | ×1.15 |  Spartak Varnav Arda · First League |
| André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento | 5.4 | ×1.15 |  Cuiabáv Juventude · Serie B |
| Edina Alves Batista | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Cearáv América Mineiro · Serie B |
| Atilla Karaoğlan | 5.5 | ×1.15 |  Beşiktaşv Gençlerbirliği · Super Lig |
| Mateo Erceg | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Varaždinv Dinamo Zagreb · 1. HNL |
| Alexis Da Silva | 4.9 | ×1.15 |  Minnesota Unitedv SJ Earthquakes · Major League Soccer |
| Bastien Dechepy | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Le Mansv Monaco · Ligue 1 |
| Daniel Palencia Caballero | 5.9 | ×1.15 |  Sporting Gijónv Real Valladolid · La Liga 2 |
| E. Mallo Fernández | 5.9 | ×1.15 | Las PalmasvEldense · La Liga 2 |
| Sven Wolfensberger | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  St. Gallenv Lugano · Super League |
| Ismael Rosario Lopez Peñuelas | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Tigres UANLv Cruz Azul · Liga MX |
| Nikola Popov | 5.0 | ×1.15 |  Levski Sofiav CSKA Sofia · First League |
| David Rafael Oliveira Silva | 6.2 | ×1.15 |  Vitória Guimarãesv Porto · Liga Portugal |
| Rafael Shafeev | 5.1 | ×1.15 |  Spartak Moskvav Akron · Premier League |
| Fedayi San | 5.3 | ×1.15 |  Servettev Zürich · Super League |
| José Armando Torres Bessa | 7.3 | ×1.15 |  Estorilv Marítimo · Liga Portugal |
| Muhammet Ali Metoğlu | 5.7 | ×1.15 |  Mardin BBv Batman Petrolspor · 1. Lig |
| Ramy Touchan | 5.4 | ×1.15 |  San Diegov Sporting KC · Major League Soccer |
| Daniel Stefanski | 6.1 | ×1.15 |  Jagiellonia Białystokv Katowice · Ekstraklasa |
| Diogo Rosa | 5.8 | ×1.15 |  Santa Clarav Gil Vicente · Liga Portugal |
| Cláudio Filipe Ruivo Pereira | 5.5 | ×1.15 |  Rio Avev Sporting Braga · Liga Portugal |
| Luca Pairetto | 4.9 | ×1.15 |  Napoliv Lazio · Serie A |
| António Emanuel Carvalho Nobre | 4.9 | ×1.15 |  Estrela Amadorav Benfica · Liga Portugal |
| Anastasios Papapetrou | 4.9 | ×1.15 |  Asteras Tripolisv Kalamata · Super League |
| Leandro Rey Hilfer | 4.8 | ×1.14 |  Institutov Newell's Old Boys · Liga Profesional de Fútbol |
| Adam Kersey | 4.9 | ×1.14 |  Macarthurv Brisbane Roar · A-League Men |
| Andrea Colombo | 4.8 | ×1.14 |  Fiorentinav Juventus · Serie A |
| Joe Dickerson | 4.8 | ×1.14 |  Real Salt Lakev LA Galaxy · Major League Soccer |
| Felix Zwayer | 4.7 | ×1.13 |  FC Kölnv Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga |
| César Soto Grado | 4.8 | ×1.13 |  Elchev Real Betis · La Liga |
| Chris Kavanagh | 4.7 | ×1.13 |  Manchester Unitedv Aston Villa · Premier League |
| Daniel Quintero Huittrón | 4.8 | ×1.12 |  Tolucav Monterrey · Liga MX |
| Fotis Polychronis | 4.8 | ×1.11 |  OFIv Atromitos · Super League |
| Geoffrey Kubler | 4.7 | ×1.11 |  Angers SCOv Nice · Ligue 1 |
| Tom Bauer | 4.8 | ×1.10 |  Magdeburgv St. Pauli · 2. Bundesliga |
| Juan Martínez Munuera | 4.6 | ×1.10 |  Real Sociedadv Rayo Vallecano · La Liga |
How the Card Model Works
Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.
Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.
Using Card Stats for Betting
Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.
Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.
Related stats
- Corner stats screenerCorner lines and hit rates by fixture
- Player prop screenerShots, fouls, tackles and cards by player
- Over/under goals screenerGoal-line hit rates for every upcoming match
- Mathematical football predictionsThis week's model probabilities for every match
- Football stats explainedWhat each number means and how to bet on it