Card stats & referee bookings

Screen upcoming matches by both teams' booking records and the referee in charge, see the expected cards and the model's price, then check this week's strictest referees.

Every upcoming match with both teams' recent booking record against the line, the expected cards with the referee factored in, and a model price next to bet365 where the odds are in.

Smart views

70 matches · line closest to even per match

Upcoming matches with recent cards hit rates, model chances and prices
	Line	Odds						L15
Barbadosnew teamGuadeloupenew team Thu 20:00 · CONCACAF Nations LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	50%2.01	–	4.7	88%7/8	88%7/8	88%7/8
Montevideo City TorqueRacing Fri 21:00 · Primera DivisionRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	58%1.73	–	5.1	60%6/10	75%15/20	70%21/30
Ponte PretaOperário PR Thu 23:00 · Serie BRef Deborah Cecilia Correia · 3.0 cards/match · ×0.98	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	58%1.73	–	5.1ref −0.1	90%9/10	70%14/20	63%19/30
SenegalSudanlimited data Thu 20:00 · Africa Cup of Nations QualificationsRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.78	–	4.0	70%7/10	67%12/18	60%12/20
San Marinolimited dataBelaruslimited data Thu 20:45 · UEFA Nations LeagueRef Goga Kikacheishvili · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.92	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	58%1.73	–	4.0ref −0.3	70%7/10	67%10/15	67%10/15
Liechtensteinlimited dataAzerbaijanlimited data Fri 20:45 · UEFA Nations LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	58%1.73	–	4.0	70%7/10	67%8/12	67%8/12
Andorralimited dataGibraltarlimited data Fri 20:45 · UEFA Nations LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 4.5 Match cards	–	45%2.22	–	4.4	70%7/10	67%8/12	67%8/12
Real ValladolidCastellón Sat 14:00 · La Liga 2Ref: not assigned yet	Over 5.5 Match cards	–	47%2.15	–	5.5	70%7/10	65%13/20	67%20/30
Albanialimited dataFinlandlimited data Thu 20:45 · UEFA Nations LeagueRef João Pedro Silva Pinheiro · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.90	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	53%1.87	–	3.8ref −0.4	70%7/10	64%9/14	64%9/14
Antigua and Barbudanew teamTrinidad and Tobagolimited data Fri 00:00 · CONCACAF Nations LeagueRef: not assigned yet	Over 3.5 Match cards	–	56%1.79	–	4.0	67%6/9	64%7/11	64%7/11

Barbadosnew teamGuadeloupenew team
Thu 20:00 · CONCACAF Nations League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.7 · Model 50%
L588%7/8L1088%7/8L1588%7/8
Montevideo City TorqueRacing
Fri 21:00 · Primera Division
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 58%
L560%6/10L1075%15/20L1570%21/30
Ponte PretaOperário PR
Thu 23:00 · Serie B
Ref Deborah Cecilia Correia · 3.0 cards/match · ×0.98
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 5.1 · Model 58%
L590%9/10L1070%14/20L1563%19/30
SenegalSudanlimited data
Thu 20:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L570%7/10L1067%12/18L1560%12/20
San Marinolimited dataBelaruslimited data
Thu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League
Ref Goga Kikacheishvili · 3.5 cards/match · ×0.92
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 58%
L570%7/10L1067%10/15L1567%10/15
Liechtensteinlimited dataAzerbaijanlimited data
Fri 20:45 · UEFA Nations League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 58%
L570%7/10L1067%8/12L1567%8/12
Andorralimited dataGibraltarlimited data
Fri 20:45 · UEFA Nations League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 4.5 Match cards
Exp 4.4 · Model 45%
L570%7/10L1067%8/12L1567%8/12
Real ValladolidCastellón
Sat 14:00 · La Liga 2
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 5.5 Match cards
Exp 5.5 · Model 47%
L570%7/10L1065%13/20L1567%20/30
Albanialimited dataFinlandlimited data
Thu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League
Ref João Pedro Silva Pinheiro · 3.6 cards/match · ×0.90
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 3.8 · Model 53%
L570%7/10L1064%9/14L1564%9/14
Antigua and Barbudanew teamTrinidad and Tobagolimited data
Fri 00:00 · CONCACAF Nations League
Ref: not assigned yet
–
–
Over 3.5 Match cards
Exp 4.0 · Model 56%
L567%6/9L1064%7/11L1564%7/11

Hit rates pool both teams' recent matches (match cards): L10 is each team's last 10, so up to 20 games. Model: expected cards from each side's for/against averages, weighted toward recent games and shrunk to the average team, as a Poisson chance; where the bookmaker prices both sides it is blended half-and-half with the margin-free market price. Odds: bet365, where the feed has them. EV is model chance × odds − 1: the model’s view of the price, not a proven betting edge. Cards are yellows plus reds per side. The referee’s cards per match in our data, shrunk toward the average referee, scales the expected cards (×0.85 to ×1.15); before a referee is assigned the teams alone set it. Matches leave the list at kick-off. “Limited data” marks a team with fewer than 10 recent matches in our data, “new team” fewer than 5. A guide, not a forecast. Updated 11 Nov, 14:48.

Referee lens: referee stats for any matchPick a match and a referee, even before the appointment, and see both teams' card form and the cards to expect.Open →

Referees this week — strictest first

Referee	Matches	Cards / match	Effect	Next match	Exp. cards
Santiago Motta	5	8.0	×1.15	Cerro LargovAtlético ProgresoFri 00:00 · Primera Division	5.1 → 5.8
Paulo Belence Alves dos Prazeres Filho	1	7.0	×1.06	São BernardovAthletic ClubFri 00:00 · Serie B	3.8 → 4.1
Alejandro Quintero González	36	5.7	–	Salamanca CF UDSvCelta de VigoFri 21:00 · Copa Del Rey	– → –
Stuart Morland	6	5.7	×1.14	Carlisle UnitedvBoston UnitedSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	4.3 → 4.9
José Luis Guzmán Mansilla	28	5.1	–	Calvo SotelovAlbaceteThu 18:30 · Copa Del Rey	– → –
Ruebyn Ricardo	47	5.1	×1.15	Swindon TownvGrimsby TownSat 16:00 · League Two	4.0 → 4.6
Mehrez Malki	5	5.0	×1.07	GambiavCôte d'IvoireTue 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	4.0 → 4.3
Matt Donohue	43	5.0	×1.15	RochdalevYork CitySat 16:00 · League Two	4.1 → 4.7
Orel Grinfeeld	18	4.9	×1.13	ArmeniavCyprusThu 18:00 · UEFA Nations League	3.9 → 4.4
James Durkin	37	4.9	×1.15	Sutton UnitedvSolihull MoorsSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	4.1 → 4.7
Juan Martínez Munuera	52	4.7	–	NavalcarnerovReal BetisThu 19:00 · Copa Del Rey	– → –
Jérôme Brisard	44	4.7	×1.10	MontenegrovLatviaThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	3.9 → 4.3
Ben Toner	54	4.6	×1.09	Salford CityvNorthampton TownSat 16:00 · League Two	3.9 → 4.2
Peter Waweru Kamaku	4	4.5	×1.03	Congo DRvSierra LeoneThu 17:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	3.4 → 3.5
Boubou Traore	5	4.4	×1.02	South SudanvAngolaTue 14:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	3.3 → 3.4
Edward Duckworth	57	4.4	×1.05	Milton Keynes DonsvBurton AlbionSat 16:00 · League One	3.9 → 4.1
Istvan Kovacs	27	4.3	×1.03	ItalyvFranceThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	3.9 → 4.1
Robert Madley	32	4.3	×1.03	Stockport CountyvReadingSat 16:00 · League One	3.7 → 3.8
J. Oldham	34	4.3	×1.03	Harrogate TownvAltrinchamSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	4.4 → 4.5
Nikola Dabanović	17	4.2	×1.01	Czech RepublicvSpainThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	3.8 → 3.8
Richard Aspinall	6	4.2	×1.00	Hartlepool UnitedvWealdstoneSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	4.3 → 4.3
Ivana Martinčić	7	4.1	×1.00	Barcelona WvArsenal WThu 18:45 · UEFA Women's Champions League	2.9 → 2.9
Thomas Parsons	57	4.0	×0.98	Crewe AlexandravNewport CountySat 16:00 · League Two	4.1 → 4.0
Washington N. Dolo	3	4.0	×0.99	ZambiavBurundiFri 14:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	3.8 → 3.8
Simon Mather	59	4.0	×0.97	Port ValevAccrington StanleySat 16:00 · League Two	4.0 → 3.9
Oliver Mackey	31	4.0	×0.98	AFC WimbledonvBlackpoolSat 16:00 · League One	3.8 → 3.7
Hillary Hambaba	3	4.0	×0.99	SudanvSenegalMon 14:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	4.0 → 4.0
Declan Bourne	38	4.0	×0.97	Southend UnitedvAldershot TownSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	4.0 → 3.9
Neil Hair	35	3.9	×0.96	Bristol RoversvChesterfieldSat 16:00 · League Two	4.5 → 4.3
Miguel Sesma Espinosa	31	3.9	–	TarancónvLevanteThu 19:00 · Copa Del Rey	– → –
Sandro Schärer	25	3.9	×0.96	TürkiyevBelgiumThu 18:00 · UEFA Nations League	4.1 → 3.9
Andrew Humphries	44	3.8	×0.93	Exeter CityvCheltenham TownSat 13:30 · League Two	4.1 → 3.8
Tolu Sangowawa	7	3.7	×0.96	AFC HornchurchvTamworthSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	4.0 → 3.8
Paul Howard	34	3.7	×0.92	Fleetwood TownvTranmere RoversSat 18:30 · League Two	4.1 → 3.8
Ross Martin	27	3.7	×0.92	Shrewsbury TownvOldham AthleticSat 16:00 · League Two	4.3 → 4.0
João Pedro Silva Pinheiro	31	3.6	×0.90	AlbaniavFinlandThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	4.3 → 3.8
Callum Jones	13	3.5	×0.92	Scunthorpe UnitedvWorthingSat 16:00 · Enterprise National League	4.0 → 3.7
Emanuela Rusta	2	3.5	×0.97	Juventus WvOL Lyonnes WWed 21:00 · UEFA Women's Champions League	3.3 → 3.2
Goga Kikacheishvili	10	3.5	×0.92	San MarinovBelarusThu 20:45 · UEFA Nations League	4.4 → 4.0
Messie Nkounkou	4	3.5	×0.96	MalivRwandaFri 20:00 · Africa Cup of Nations Qualifications	4.5 → 4.3

How the Card Model Works

Cards are counted as yellows plus reds for each side. For every upcoming match the model takes each team's cards received and the cards its opponents picked up over its last 15 matches, weights recent games more, and shrinks the result toward the average team so a few wild games cannot dominate.

Then the referee comes in. Their cards per match across every game of theirs in our data is compared with the average match; the more games they have refereed, the more that rate counts. A strict referee scales the expected cards up (to at most ×1.4), a lenient one down (to ×0.7). Before a referee is appointed, the teams alone set the number.

Using Card Stats for Betting

Booking markets move on the referee more than most bettors realise: the same fixture can be a 3.5-card game with one official and a 5.5-card game with another. Use Strict referees to see the matches where the appointment pushes the line up, and Quiet games for unders.

Context matters too: derbies, relegation battles and cup ties tend to run hotter than the averages. Check the team stats for fouls and cards per game, and the player prop screener for individual booking lines.

Card stats & referee bookings

Card Screener

Referees this week — strictest first

How the Card Model Works

Using Card Stats for Betting

Related stats